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Projecting which past Iowa football teams would have appeared in 12-team College Football Playoff
4 Iowa teams from Kirk Ferentz’s past 25 seasons as head coach were ranked high enough if 12-team playoff existed earlier
IOWA CITY — As the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season, Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz does not seem to be missing the old four-team format.
“When we went from two to four, I didn’t like that at all,” Ferentz said in July at the Big Ten’s football media days. “If you go to four, you might as well go to eight. And then you’re arguing about who’s eight, who’s nine. … So if you’re going to expand, then expand. At least we’re doing that.”
Especially for a team with a veteran defense, sixth-year starting quarterback and relatively favorable schedule, a 12-team CFP berth is a realistic aspiration for the Hawkeyes. It also will likely define what is considered a successful season at Iowa and several other programs across the country.
“Right now, the goal is to get in the playoffs,” Ferentz said. “It’s the next goal for this year. Be one of 12.”
Iowa did not have any appearances in the four-team CFP or the two-team BCS national championship game before that. But there is precedent for Iowa to be one of the top 12 teams in the country.
Four Iowa teams in the Ferentz era that would have made a 12-team playoff bracket — either based on CFP rankings from 2014-23 or the BCS rankings from 1999-2013 — if the expanded playoff existed at the time:
(Before the Pac-12’s demise, the 12-team field was going to include six conference champions instead of five. The hypothetical seedings below are based on six automatic bids, which ensures the presence of at least one Group of Five conference team in the bracket.)
How the 12-team College Football Playoff works
- The field will feature five automatic bids and seven at-large bids. The five automatic bids will go to the five highest-ranked conference champions. (Given that there are only four power conferences, it ensures at least one Group of Five conference champion will earn a spot in the bracket.)
- The top four conference champions receive first-round byes.
- The teams seeded fifth through eighth will host first-round CFP games at their campus stadiums. The quarterfinals and semifinals will be held at traditional bowl sites.
2015 (CFP era)
Iowa came up inches short of a bid in the four-team CFP after going 12-0 in the regular season and narrowly losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.
The Hawkeyes finished the season as the No. 5 team in the CFP rankings. With four conference champions ahead of them, they would have been a No. 5 seed and hosted a first-round game against No. 12 seed Houston.
It would not have been an easy matchup for the Hawkeyes. Houston, a member of the American Athletic Conference at the time, had a 13-1 season and finished the year with a 38-24 win over No. 9 Florida State.
If Iowa won against Houston, it would have set up a quarterfinal game against Oklahoma in Bob Stoops’ penultimate year as head coach there.
2009 (BCS era)
The 2009 Hawkeyes rose as high as No. 4 in the BCS rankings in late October and early November before back-to-back losses to Northwestern and Ohio State dashed any chances of a BCS national championship game berth.
Iowa finished the year at No. 10 in the BCS rankings and would have earned a spot in a 12-team CFP field as an at-large team. The Hawkeyes’ hypothetical first-round matchup would have been at Pac-10 champion Oregon.
The quarterfinal would pit the winner of Iowa-Oregon against second-seeded Texas. In real life, the Longhorns lost the national championship that year to Alabama.
2004 (BCS era)
The 2004 Iowa team would have barely made the cut for a 12-team playoff.
The Hawkeyes finished No. 12 in the BCS rankings and were the highest-ranked Big Ten team. Six conference champions were ahead of Iowa, however, so the Hawkeyes hypothetically would have the last at-large bid.
Iowa’s first-round matchup would have been on the road against Texas. The Longhorns, led by star quarterback and Heisman runner-up Vince Young, had one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
The winner of that game would then play fourth-seeded Utah — the 2004 Mountain West champions — in the quarterfinals.
2002 (BCS era)
Iowa football despite winning a share of the Big Ten title in 2002, would have claimed the top at-large spot in a 12-team bracket at No. 5.
The Hawkeyes would then play host to 12th-seeded ACC champion Florida State. The Seminoles were No. 14 in the final BCS rankings, but would take the last spot as the sixth conference champion.
The winner would play USC in the quarterfinals. Iowa played USC in the Orange Bowl in real life that year, and the Trojans walked away with a 38-17 win.
Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com
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