Three keys to victory for No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati

History is on the line Saturday when Iowa State visits Cincinnati for a Big 12 football matchup.

ISU’s already in uncharted territory by starting 5-0 (or better) for the second straight season. The Cyclones reeled off seven straight wins last season before hitting a two-game skid and reviving to earn a berth in the conference title game

So a loss against a confident (and slightly favored) Cincinnati team that’s suffered through two straight losing seasons since joining the Big 12 wouldn’t necessarily derail the season. It would, however, clearly endanger hopes of remaining in title contention.

THREE KEYS TO VICTORY

MAKE THE SKIES FRIENDLY

Cincinnati’s defense has been solid against the run (31st nationally) with or without standout tackle Dontay Corleone, who is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against No. 14 Iowa State.

The Bearcats’ passing defense is an entirely different story — and they’re allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete an astonishing 74 percent of throws. Cyclone quarterback Rocco Becht has improved his accuracy in his third season as the starter, putting passes in the right position for receivers, tight ends and running backs to excel in yards after the catch.

Expect that trend to continue on Saturday against a Cincinnati secondary allowing 249 yards per game through the air (105th nationally). The Bearcats have yet to notch an interception this season and Iowa State’s emerging big-play threats at receiver, Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend, should be able to get open frequently. Couple their abilities with star tight ends Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle — who’ve combined for five touchdown catches this season — and Becht should have a big day, which will open up more options in the run game.

RAMP UP THE PRESSURE

ISU lost its starting cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to season-ending ACL injures within a week and their absence will put the bullseye on transfer Tre Bell and redshirt freshman Quentin Taylor, who will likely start.

Bell’s been impressive all season and Taylor was talked up during both spring and fall camp, so they should be solid replacements, but losing two all-Big 12 caliber corners exposes the Cyclones’ back end of its defense significantly — and Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby is primed to take advantage. He’s thrown 10 touchdown passes while being intercepted just once this season.

He’s also only been sacked once, and ISU continues to struggle in that area, producing just eight sacks (tied for 12th in the Big 12) through five games. But one way to make up for less experienced cornerbacks centers on bringing more pressure — whether that’s by bringing a linebacker to the edge to form a de facto four-man front, or bringing more blitzes. Sorsby can slice through teams with his legs, as well, so it’s a perilous proposition, but one the Cyclones could choose to deploy as they adjust to life without their star corners.

ROLL THE DICE

ISU has not been shy about going for it on fourth down — and for good reason. The Cyclones are 5-for-5 on fourth down conversions this season and 25 of their past 30 overall.

So these are well-calculated risks head coach Matt Campbell and offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser have been taking in that area and the approach has clearly paid off. Backup kicker Chase Smith, who looked good on extra points and a 34-yard field goal in last week’s blowout win over Arizona, also will face his first road test under the spotlight. Keeping pressure off of him is extremely important as he eases into the starting role while Kyle Konrardy heals.

PREDICTION

Expect plenty of points to be scored in this one.

The Cyclones face their first game without their top two and pro-caliber cornerbacks and ISU must find a way to prepare its depleted secondary to stop potent Sorsby. Cincinnati’s passing offense is elite at 288.0 yards per game — and Sorsby added 100 yards to that average in last week’s last-minute comeback win at Kansas.

The Cyclones, meanwhile, feature several playmakers at quarterback Rocco Becht’s disposal, including transfer receiver Chase Sowell, who amassed 146 receiving yards on four catches in last week’s win over Arizona.

ISU 35, Cincinnati 31

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com