Here are 3 keys to victory for Iowa State vs. Arizona

AMES — Contender vs. pretender status is a stake Saturday in the wide-open Big 12 title chase.

Arizona’s seeking to prove it belongs in the league’s top tier after languishing near the bottom last season. Iowa State’s eager to maintain its status among the conference’s top teams after reaching the Big 12 title game a year ago.

So there’s a prestige factor in play here, as well as major implications in the league standings. The loser won’t fall out of contention entirely, but its road to Arlington will narrow significantly.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY FOR THE CYCLONES

1. Boe up, show out — The big boys need to shine in this one — and on paper, Arizona could make that difficult.

Owning the line of scrimmage always is important, but it’s a paramount goal on Saturday, where turnovers may be rare and big plays may be difficult to conjure up.

Now here’s why ruling the trenches will be hard: The Wildcats (3-0) rank 30th nationally in rushing defense (96.0 yard per game) and seventh in total defense (223.2 yards). The Cyclones (4-0, 1-0), meanwhile, rank a middling 52nd against the run (121 yards per game) and are tied for 70th in rushing offense, at 161 yards per game.

So who wins up front? Stay tuned, but whichever team does likely will win the game. Iowa State’s as healthy has its been all season on the offensive line, so should be able to get significant push against an undersized but high-performing Arizona front seven. If the Cyclones aren’t able to create creases in the run game, it could be a long night for quarterback Rocco Becht, as the Wildcats will get creative to produce pressure on the pocket.

2. Give Noah Fifita fits — Arizona’s small (listed at 5-foot-10) but skilled quarterback has yet to throw in interception this season, but five of his six touchdown passes came in a single game — a 48-3 trouncing of FCS Weber State.

The Wildcats’ emerging running game has helped Fifita be efficient throughout the season, however, and he’s clearly the engine for an offense that’s averaging 37 points per game. Fifita’s thrived as a pocket passer most of his career, but he’s making more plays with his feet in his third season as the starter. He rushed for a career-high 48 yards and two touchdowns in Arizona’s 23-17 win over Kansas State.

Iowa State’s defense may have to deploy a spy on him to stop him from extending plays and drives via the scramble. Bringing pressure via the blitz could help, as well. Fifita’s been sacked eight times and the Cyclones need to make him uncomfortable to slow the Wildcats’ formidable offense.

3. Hijake hope — Arizona’s rightly feeling good about itself after struggling to win (4-8) in its debut season in the Big 12 in 2024.

The Wildcats addressed shortcomings in the running game and on defense via the transfer portal and will strut into Ames confident they can knock off the Cyclones on their home turf.

A long-sought fast start on both sides of the ball by Iowa State could cause doubt to creep into the minds of the visitors — and that must happen for the first time this season if the Cyclones hope to cover the 7.5-point spread and avoid another stressful down-to-the-wire game.

PREDICTION IOWA STATE VS. ARIZONA

Iowa State’s been solid in terms of turnover margin, tying for 43rd nationally at plus-0.5 per game. But Arizona’s been among the nation’s best — tied for first in FBS at plus-2.0 turnovers per game.

Controlling that all-important aspect of the game allows a team to win both at home and away, and the revamped Wildcats have certainly put up impressive numbers across the board while going 3-0 to start the season.

So how much will playing on home turf at Jack Trice Stadium matter to the Cyclones? Probably quite a bit. A sellout crowd will be loud and ISU’s one of the least penalized teams in the country for the second straight season. Couple that with quarterback Rocco Becht’s penchant for putting together game-winning fourth quarter drives (he’s done that seven times) and the Cyclones find a way to win, but not cover.

Iowa State 27, Arizona 24

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com