Cyclones 3 keys to victory

AMES — What’s at stake Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium?

How about bragging rights. Social media struts. Little else.

Conference play will determine whether these Cy-Hawk rivals are capable of making a run at their respective league titles and/or the College Football Playoff. But image (along with name and likeness) still matters, and with Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff on hand for Saturday’s game — accompanied by Barstool Sports and other hi-jinks/hoopla — the winner will establish itself as a team to watch for the foreseeable future.

The Cyclones also haven’t beaten Iowa at home since 2011, and that’s a drought they’d love to end.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

1. Greed is good

Iowa is so good at (a) maintaining possession and (b) avoiding penalties, so Iowa State needs to mount a full-scale hunt for success on the turnover front and in details-oriented areas.

The Hawkeyes didn’t commit a single turnover in six straight Cy-Hawk Series games from 2015 to 2021 (the 2020 game wasn’t played because of the COVID-19 pandemic). That’s a staggering stat — and helps explain how Iowa won all of those games. Since then, the Cyclones have forced an average of two turnovers per game against the Hawkeyes and, unsurprisingly, they’ve won two of those meetings.

Iowa obviously will try to find success on the ground and avoid taking chances against ISU cornerbacks Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper. But if the Cyclones can put the Hawkeyes in a good amount of third and long situations, they must take advantage and snag a turnover or two.

2. Explore the margins

Iowa’s always-tough defense wants opposing offenses to remain within the tackle boxes, thus shrinking the field it must cover in the passing game while stifling the run.

ISU’s seemingly been happy to oblige in that area in several of the most recent Cy-Hawk meetings and the scoreboard has reflected that acquiescence. The Cyclones have tallied more than 20 points against the Hawkeyes just once in the past 10 Cy-Hawk games, and when they did eclipse that modest number, they lost, 44-41, in overtime in 2017 at home.

ISU has the playmakers in the passing game — particularly at tight end — to exploit Iowa’s inexperienced starting linebackers’ corps, while also stressing its somewhat green secondary. The key, of course, will be keeping quarterback Rocco Becht on his feet.

The Hawkeyes’ defensive line will stress a Cyclone offensive line that gave up four sacks to Kansas State in the first half of the team’s season-opening win in Dublin, but has given up just one sack in the six quarters played since then.

3. Mind the gap

Ball control. Risk averse. Toughness based. That’s how Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz approaches this rivalry game — and just about every game — as he seeks to become the Big Ten’s all-time leader in wins on Saturday.

The Hawkeyes’ offense has rarely looked pretty while winning six of the eight Cy-Hawk games played since ISU head coach Matt Campbell entered the picture in 2016, but that’s no coincidence. Iowa wins by being efficient, clean and powerful in the trenches.

So the Hawkeyes — who rushed for 310 yards against FCS also-ran Albany last weekend — will likely run the ball as much as possible unless the Cyclones are able to slow down current lead backs Xavier Williams and Terrell Washington Jr. Iowa will be without No. 1 back Kamari Moulton because of an injury sustained in its season-opening win over the Great Danes, but it’s the offensive line that dictates things on this front, and that’s what ISU must find a way to thwart.

PREDICTION

The No. 16 Cyclones have lost six straight to the Hawkeyes at home, but possess a modest two-game win streak at Kinnick Stadium. Go figure. Seems nuts? It kind of is, but given how close — and strange — the Cy-Hawk game has typically been for at least the past decade, it shouldn’t be that surprising.

This year’s matchup, as usual, will hinge on who wins the turnover battle and who makes the fewest mistakes. That’s been Iowa by a mile in these recent matchups at Jack Trice Stadium. But the Cyclones’ wild card is quarterback Rocco Becht — a proven winner at this level who’s led his team on five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter in his two-plus seasons as the starter.

Iowa State 24, Iowa 17