A closer look at Saturday’s football game: Iowa State at Colorado

AMES — Iowa State’s miscues in the margins in last week’s loss absolutely cannot occur again this week against a hungry Colorado football team that fully believes it can beat anybody.

Las Vegas oddsmakers agree — and the so-called “smart money” immediately flocked to the Buffaloes when ISU opened as a 4.5-point road favorite. A second setback in a row would obviously be devastating to the Cyclones’ hopes of returning to the Big 12 title game — and would swiftly relegate them to the pretender pile in terms of that equation.

So how tough is ISU? We’ll find out on Saturday.

3 keys to victory

Transfer tandem tango

Iowa State notably added talented transfer receivers Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend to their team to help replace budding NFL stars Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel — both of whom scored touchdowns last week for the Houston Texans.

Sowell and Townsend were slowed by injuries in fall camp, Cyclone head coach Matt Campbell said, and are finally fully hitting their respective strides. Townsend totaled a career-high 92 receiving yards in the win at Arkansas State and has four catches spanning 15 or more yards in the past three games. Sowell’s collected four receptions spanning 25 or more yards in the past two weeks alone.

Both made key fourth down grabs in last week’s loss at Cincinnati, and both must continue to emerge as consistent big play threats as opposing defenses scheme to slow productive ISU tight ends such as Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle.

Pound and pummel

The Cyclones rank a middling 10th in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game at 151.8 and their per-carry average is dead last at 3.9.

That latter number is a bit misleading, though, as quarterback Rocco Becht is deeply involved in the run game, and he’s converted several fourth-and-ones on sneaks while also losing 69 yards on 11 sacks.

ISU could be depth-challenged in the backfield in Boulder, with Carson Hansen considered questionable after sustaining a concussion in last week’s loss at Cincinnati, but fellow lead back Abu Sama’s coming off a season-best 86-yard rushing effort against the Bearcats. Colorado, meanwhile, ranks last in the Big 12 in terms of double-digits rushes allowed (37), and one of its best defensive linemen is questionable for Saturday’s game.

Ball control — along with ball security — will be key for the Cyclones in what’s likely to be a closely-contested matchup with the Buffaloes, and that starts with a running game that must be on its A-game if they hope to win.

Take or break

One of the reasons Colorado’s struggled to win games this season stems from the fact that it’s only taken the ball away from opponents five times in six games. The Buffaloes also have coughed up the football eight times in that span to make them the Big 12’s second-to-worst team in turnover margin at minus-0.5 per game.

ISU’s been much better in this all-important area — but couldn’t turn a potential game-changing fumble recovery last week at Cincinnati into points. So the Cyclones must not only win when it comes down to the turnover tally on Saturday, they also need to make Colorado pay if and when they lose the football.

The Buffaloes’ three turnovers in the first half in last week’s loss at TCU allowed the Horned Frogs to erase a 14-point deficit and eventually win by that same margin. ISU likely needs to be similarly opportunistic to leave Boulder with anything remotely resembling a comfortable win.

Prediction

The Buffaloes seem poised for a breakthrough and the Cyclones have played poorly in their only true road games at Arkansas State and Cincinnati. A turnover swings this one — and Colorado ranks 15th in the Big 12 in turnover margin, while ISU’s sixth.

The Buffaloes have blown early 14-point leads in two consecutive games but are good enough to hang with almost anybody. The Cyclones — unlike last week in the 38-30 loss at Cincinnati — should manage to start fast and hold on to get back on the winning track.

Iowa State 24, Colorado 20

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com