Cyclones look to stay in contention for Big 12 title game

AMES — What’s a stake Saturday when Iowa State hosts BYU in a Big 12 football game?

How about any hope the Cyclones can play in the Big 12 title game for the second season in a row.

Last fall, two straight losses seemed to knock them out of contention, but the parity in the league helped create a four-way tie for the regular season title, and tiebreakers broke the right way. So while ISU remains a distinct dark horse in the conference title race, hope remains in that regard — for now, at least.

Keys to victory

Scare the Bear

Just four quarterbacks in the country have more rushing touchdowns than BYU true freshman Bear Bachmeier, who’s scampered into the end zone eight times this season.

And the 6-foot-2, 230-pound budding star from Murrieta, Calif., isn’t just a scrambler and improviser. He’s carried the ball 82 times — mostly by design — and averages 4.4 yards per carry despite being sacked seven times. The Cougars also have given up the seventh-least amount of sack yardage this season, largely thanks to Bachmeier’s ability to withstand hits and minimize losses.

The Cyclones, meanwhile, field one of the least pressure-producing defensive fronts in the country for the second straight season, and if that trend holds, Bachmeier will be able to hurt the home team through the air, as well. He’s completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,337 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions — the exact same ratio ISU junior quarterback Rocco Becht has compiled this season.

But the Cyclones should still have opportunities to rattle him if they can overwhelm the Cougars’ veteran offensive line occasionally. Three of Bachmeier’s seven sacks have come in the past two games and he’s completed just 49 percent of his passes in that relatively short span, while tossing two touchdowns and two picks.

Get the turnover train on track

ISU’s forced just one turnover in the past two losses and now stands a middling eighth in the Big 12 in turnover margin at plus-0.43 per game.

BYU’s doubling up the Cyclones in that all-important statistical category, tying for the conference lead in turnover margin at plus-0.86 per game. That helps explain how the Cougars have won three of their four Big 12 games by a combined 12 points — they make clutch plays in key moments almost without fail.

ISU has dropped two straight one-score games after winning nine of its previous 10 decided by eight or fewer points, and its acumen for forcing turnovers correlates with that fact. The Cyclones ranked third in the league and tied for 22nd nationally in turnover margin last season.

Having Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams — two of the top defensive backs in the Big 12 who both are out for the season — on the field helped significantly in that regard, but ISU must find a way to gain an extra possession or two via turnover to maintain a strong chance to upend BYU.

Let’s get physical

One of the first words out of Coach Matt Campbell’s and ISU defensive coordinator Jon Heacock’s mouth when describing BYU is “physical” — and that’s true on both sides of the ball.

The Cougars’ veteran offensive line run blocks and protects Bachmeier at an elite level, and their front seven on defense features several playmakers adept at thwarting the best laid plans of opposing offensive coordinators. The Cyclones need to match or exceed that toughness in the trenches, and that could be particularly difficult on defense, as star nose guard Domonique Orange was listed as “doubtful” on the team’s initial Big 12-mandated injury report on Wednesday.

ISU’s offensive line has been playing with the “violence and versatility” their position coach, Ryan Clanton, demands of it, and with Carson Hansen potentially back in the mix at tailback after missing the Colorado game because of a concussion, there should be opportunities to make big gains on the ground.

PREDICTION

The No. 11 Cougars bludgeon opponents with a top-10 rushing attack and are the most complete team the Cyclones will have played this season. Las Vegas oddsmakers, however, look at all of that and say, “So?”

I don’t usually go against “the sharps,” but ISU’s two-game losing streak has been marked by ill-timed mistakes, and I’m not convinced the Cyclones can eliminate those issues well enough to beat a highly-disciplined and unbeaten team that also lives — and thrives — “in the margins.”

BYU 27, Iowa State 24

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com