B1G Tournament primer: Ten big topics entering Chicago

1. Player to watch: Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell.

The 6-foot-5 guard is nation's leading freshman scorer and finished in Big Ten scoring at 19.2 points per game. He was third in Big Ten assists (5.2) and led Ohio State with 5.6 rebounds. He has scored in double figures in the last 29 games and according to Ohio State, Russell's current points-assists-rebounds (PAR) of 30.0 is the fourth-best of any Big Ten player in the last 10 seasons.

2. Team with the most to gain: Illinois.

The Fighting Illini (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten) are likely just outside the NCAA tournament bubble. Illinois has an RPI of 59 and a strength-of-schedule of 66. The eighth-seeded Illini's first-round match-up against ninth-seeded Michigan (14-15, 8-10 Big Ten; RPI: 87) is critical to remain in the bubble discussion. The Illini and Wolverines split their previous games, both of which were in overtime. It might take either an upset over top-seeded Wisconsin or an Indiana loss to earn an NCAA berth.

3. Team with the most to lose: Indiana.

The seventh-seeded Hoosiers (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten, RPI: 57) are just slightly ahead of Illinois based on their 80-74 win at Champaign, and a strength-of-schedule of 25. But another loss to Northwestern (15-16, 6-12, RPI: 111) would be Indiana's fourth straight overall and likely would push the Hoosiers into the NIT. The Wildcats beat Indiana 72-65 on Feb. 25.

4. Team to watch: Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have won their last six games, five of which by at least eight points. Iowa is 7-3 in true road games and boasts an experienced squad led by first-team all-Big Ten senior forward Aaron White. Iowa is 8-2 over its last 10 games with each loss coming by five points. Its average margin of victory over that span? 17.4. This is a confident, high-level team that few want to face right now.

5. Upset alert: No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. 6 Ohio State.

The Gophers play 14th-seeded Rutgers to open their tourney, and the winner (let's say Minnesota) faces the Buckeyes around 8 p.m. Thursday. The teams played just once, and the Buckeyes won 74-72 in overtime at Williams Arena. Minnesota has underachieved and lost five of its last six. But with veterans Andre Hollins and Maurice Walker, the Gophers are capable of pulling a stunner.

6. Best (potential) early-round match-up: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 4 Purdue.

The teams played just once and it was a bit of crossroads game for the Boilermakers. Purdue finished in last a year ago, lost non-conference games to Gardner-Webb and North Florida and opened Big Ten play 3-3. Iowa led 10-2 just three minutes into the game before forward Aaron White suffered a neck stinger and missed almost the entire game. Iowa rallied from a 12-point deficit to take a late lead but Purdue's Rapheal Davis drilled a 3-pointer with 45 seconds left to push the Boilers ahead and eventually pull out the win.

7. Most interesting (potential) championship match-up: No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 2 Maryland.

The Terrapins surprised the Big Ten champions 59-53 in their only regular-season meeting at College Park. Maryland shot 48 percent, while Wisconsin hit just 38 percent of its shots. Wisconsin sank just 6 of 22 3-point attempts, while Maryland attempted only seven and made two. It marked the Badgers' second and final league loss and lent credibility to Maryland in its inaugural Big Ten season.

8. Best individual match-up: Penn State's D.J. Newbill vs. Nebraska's Terran Petteway.

This first-round game pits the last two league scoring champions against one another. Newbill led the Big Ten with 20.7 points a game for the 13th-seeded Nittany Lions. Petteway averaged 16.9 points a game for the 12th-seeded Cornhuskers. Petteway led the Big Ten last year at 18.1 points a game. In their previous meeting this year, neither player posted strong offensive numbers in a 56-43 Penn State win at Bryce Jordan Center. Petteway scored 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting, while Newbill scored 11.

9. Biggest question mark: Michigan State.

Nobody should rule out the Spartans, especially with Coach Tom Izzo at the helm. It would be foolish to do so with veterans - and all-B1G players - Branden Dawson, Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine also in uniform. At times Michigan State has played exceptional and tenacious, such as the second half at Iowa. Other times, they appear surprisingly sloppy. If Michigan State puts it all together, it is capable of reaching Sunday. But the Spartans are equally capable of stumbling against Ohio State (or even Minnesota) on Friday night.

10. Who hoists the trophy? Wisconsin.

The Badgers clearly are the league's best team with the best player in Frank Kaminsky and arguably the best coach in Bo Ryan. Wisconsin will get best efforts from a potentially desperate Illinois (quarterfinal), rival Iowa (semifinal) and Michigan State (title game). But the Badger machine is built for every possible opponent or scenario.

SCHEDULE

Wednesday's games

13. Penn State vs. 12. Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2

14. Rutgers vs. 11. Minnesota, 6 p.m., BTN

Thursday's games

9. Michigan vs. 8. Illinois, 11 a.m., BTN

5. Iowa vs. Penn State/Nebraska winner, 1:30 p.m., BTN

7. Indiana vs. 10. Northwestern, 5:30 p.m., ESPN2

6. Ohio State vs. Rutgers/Minnesota, 8 p.m., ESPN2

Friday's games

1. Wisconsin vs. Michigan/Illinois winner, 11 a.m., ESPN

4. Purdue vs. Iowa/Nebraska/Penn State winner, 1:30 p.m., ESPN

2. Maryland vs. Indiana/Northwestern winner, 5:30 p.m., BTN

3. Michigan State vs. Ohio State/Minnesota/Rutgers winner, 8 p.m., BTN

Saturday's games

Semifinal, noon, CBS

Semifinal, 2:30 p.m., CBS

Sunday's game

Championship, 2:30 p.m., CBS

PREDICTIONS

Wednesday's games

Nebraska 67, Penn State 65

Minnesota 74, Rutgers 61

Thursday's games

Illinois 63, Michigan 61 (OT)

Iowa 73, Nebraska 65

Northwestern 69, Indiana 65

Ohio State 70, Minnesota 66

Friday's games

Wisconsin 74, Illinois 62

Iowa 71, Purdue 67

Maryland 68, Northwestern 61

Michigan State 63, Ohio State 60

Saturday's games

Wisconsin 69, Iowa 63

Michigan State 68, Maryland 64

Sunday's game

Wisconsin 70, Michigan State 63

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com