Updated: 6 November 2012 | 6:35 am in conversations
Your predictions for this Election Day
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I Voted stickers sit on a table during early voting for the Nov. 6th election, Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012, at the Davenport Public Library in Davenport, Iowa. Early voting for the Nov. 6th election likely will set an Iowa record, as presidential candidates seek to lock-in votes in the battleground state. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
We’ll keep this one simple:
Election Day is finally here. What’s your prediction in the races for the White House, Iowa’s congressional seats or other local races and issues?
Rules of Engagement
Your predictions for this Election Day
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I think it will be so close between Obama & Romney that we may not know tonight who won. The winner? Romney, by a slim margin.
Obama will win the vote count, which doesn’t necessarily mean he will be re-elected. That scenario, however, seems a little less likely as he (Obama) is likely to win comfortably enough to preclude the process being ‘thrown‘.
Democrats will increase plurality in the U.S. Senate.
Justice Wiggins will be retained.
a lot of people will vote and about half or so of those will be crying voter fraud and the other half will be claiming mandate. A lot more people won’t vote with a good share of that block not even aware it’s election day and the rest not caring which suit sits in office since the only difference is the width of the pinstripes in thier minds
Our congress has a very low approval rating. I predict that 90% of the incumbents will get reelected which means nothing is going to change. No matter who is elected president, if our politicians don’t start putting their differences aside and start working together, the United States economy is going to suffer more and be worse then the 2008 recession.
Americans will either choose Obama and continue down the path of a complete socialists/marxist dictatorship lacking any constitutional values……or come to their senses and realise what a great nation we have and strive to preserve it.
Romney gets over 300 electoral votes, wins most swing states. Wiggins packs up his office and hits the road. Unfortunately we won’t get rid of Loebsack. ugh
The biggest winners will be the people behind the money. When the money gets their candidates elected and tells them to jump, the politicians only ask, “How high!”
With the H.I.G Capital’s purchase of Hart Intercivic this year, many but not all jurisdictions around the country using Hart Intercivic voting machines do not leave a paper trail and the machines will show an extremely large count for romney.
The Democrats will keep the Senate and take over the house in Washington and Des Moines. And Wiggins will be retained.
First DEMs taking the House. Ha ha ha no way.
http://dyn.politico.comprintstory.cfm?uuid=883AFD26-1901-4EC7-8168-5856501231D4
2nd, they keep the Senate? Probably not, I’d post more URLs showing where the flight of fancy derailed, but safe to say REPs will have a 3-4 seat majority. Have fun helping Wiggins pack the U-haul.
I predict that at the end of today, Americans will collectively give a sigh of relief that the filthy and foul campaining is over! At least for a few months.
Nate Silver has an incredible record for accurate analysis of elections. He uses a very sophisticated and comprehensive stochastic model. I have called him the “statistician’s statistician” and since I have extensive training in statistics and worked with statistics all my professional life I relate to him and highly respect him. His analysis says that President Obama has a 90.9% probability to win reelection.
If you look at his analysis of Senate races it looks like a few names may change but the Senate will remain at 53-47 in favor of the Democrats.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
What do some of the polls he has listed have for weighting, D+11? Over emphasizing DEMs using 2008 numbers is just plain foolish, but hey if it makes you feel good, I’m happy for you. You may want to practice saying, “President Romney”.
Ah, wingnuts with the Faux News and Rush Limbaugh supplied talking point fantasies. It’s a shame they’re unable to actually become educated about things and think for themselves, but they are a little cute in a pathetic sort of way.
Speaking of pathetic, why would a LIB think for one instance that numbers like 2008 would happen in 2012? C’mon, you like all LIBS are soooooo smart and informed, let’s hear why the turnout in 2010 wasn’t close to 2008 but you think it’s going to happen this year. Can’t wait for your reply.
Because, Mr Abernathy, 2010 was a midterm election. There is always a dropoff in the midterms. People just aren’t as interested in Congress.
But I’m sitting here watching the returns and in many areas turnout is exceeding that of 2008. In fact, in Racine, Wis, they ran out of ballots the turnout has been so high. And people are still in line to vote even thought the polls closed over an hour ago.
Msrs. Abernathy and Ahart have track records of dealing with reality, facts, and opposing views with denial. Will that work for disappointment and rejection?
If you knew anything about Nate Silvers techniques you would know that he uses many polls, he weights the importance based on historical accuracy and makes adjustments based on historical bias. He also considers all sorts of factors other than polls and everything is factored based on historical analysis.
I suspect John does even know what a stochastic analysis. Yet, that does not stop him from commenting on it.
I was going to take Abernathy’s advice and practice saying “President Romney” but chose to spend time on something else. Looks like I made the right choice.
Nate Silver can’t touch these two Colorado Professors who have accurately called every presidential election since 1980 including the states with 100% accuracty. Obama goes down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArqjthYhG1c
This is funny. This report took place 28 days ago. A lot has happened in the last 28 days.
Anyone would grant more credibility to an analysis done today than one done 28 days ago. Well, anyone who was not shopping for a story to support their wishful thinking.
Popular vote will be close but Obama wins electoral vote decisively. GOP keeps the House Democrats keep the Senate. Braley, Loebsack, King and Latham win Iowa’s congressional seats.
OK, I’ll follow your lead and go out on a limb (but with a net placed underneath) and agree with you ( if King does win I’ll likely throw up — I’ve got the bucket ready ). I’ll go out just a bit further and say that judge Wiggins will be retained.
Now for a prediction of the consequences of the election regardless of who wins: The Congress will remain dysfunctional and self-serving and the Nation will continue in its decline.
” if King does win I’ll likely throw up ”
You should probably eat a light lunch. Maybe read articles from places other than Huffpo and dailykoos.
http://tinyurl.com/areluof
This forum will be much more interesting tomorrow, assuming that our sterling moderators deign to ask the right questions.
Obama win 303 -235 committed electoral votes.
Repubs retain the US House, but their majority is lessened.
Democrats retain their slim majority in the Senate.
To quote Dana Perino, “Romney will win because he deserves it (pause)
Obama will lose because he deserves it.”
Well, so much for the meaningless statement from Dana Perino ( whoever she is ).
Smith,
Dana Perino was Dubya Bush’s press secretary for the last four months of his presidency. Now she’s a talking head on FOX News.
O for two