Gov. Culver's Position is Dire

I wouldn't declare Gov. Chet Culver's re-election campaign dead just yet. But I would recommend getting its affairs in order.

Maybe pick out a few nice hymns.

It doesn't look good, folks. A pair of polls last week show former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad with big, double-digit leads over Culver, the Democratic incumbent. Culver's approval rating is frigid.

It would be foolish to declare an election over in August. In late July 1998, for example, Tom Vilsack trailed Jim Ross Lightfoot by 23 points. Vilsack won.

(From the archives, here's the lede from the July 24, 1998, Gazette:)

Republican Jim Ross Lightfoot has a big lead over Democratic foe Tom Vilsack in the race for governor, but a Lightfoot spokesman says the campaign will function as though the race were a dead heat.

A Mason-Dixon survey conducted' this week for The Gazette and KCRG-TV9 finds Lightfoot "a solid favorite," with 54 percent of likely voters saying he's their choice. Vilsack is preferred by 31 percent. The other 15 percent are undecided.

Lightfoot not only has strong backing from his GOP base (81 percent), but also leads Vilsack among registered independents (58 percent to 24 percent), analysts said.

But Vilsack wasn't a well-known sitting governor. And Lightfoot made late mistakes that a disciplined candidate such as Branstad would never allow. Culver's position is dire. His odds of a comeback are small.

That's not to say Branstad is everything we've hoped for and more. I don't know about you, but climbing into the wayback machine still makes me queasy. He's failed to explain how he can slash state spending while vowing to increase education and mental health funding and cut corporate taxes. Oddly, he's dashed to the right on the future of Iowa's judiciary and immigration, even after winning the Republican primary.

But today, the race is his to win.

Meanwhile, Culver must sweat stuff big and small.

His approval rating sank in 2009 as the unemployment rate rose. The economy has knocked the stuffing out of voter confidence in the government Culver leads. His massive I-JOBS infrastructure bonding initiative, though effective in funding some important projects - especially around these flooded parts - has been unpopular from the start. The thousands of jobs Culver boldly promised haven't materialized.

He's made the argument, effectively at times, that I-JOBS helped Iowa recover, and that the state, overall, is in better financial shape than many. He has accomplishments to point to on renewable energy and education.

But the poison pill for his re-election hopes is a lack of confidence among Iowans in his personal competence. When government fails, the buck stops with the governor. Culver is buried in stopped bucks.

Film tax credits spent on luxury cars ... allegations that an advocate for the elderly was muzzled ... a fiscally over-served Alcoholic Beverages Division ... a federal audit charging that he misspent election reform dollars as secretary of state ... a special prosecutor investigating campaign contributions from casino backers. Missteps, both consequential and comic, keep dogging this governor.

Not all are his fault, but all came on his watch, and many voters have simply  turned away. Getting them to reconsider the Culver brand will be exceedingly difficult at this late date. Perhaps impossible.

It may take some Amazing Grace.

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todd.dorman@gazcomm.com