Braley maintains lead in Iowa U.S. Senate race

Braley holds a nine-point lead over Jacobs

James Q. Lynch
Published: March 13 2014 | 5:37 am - Updated: 1 April 2014 | 9:32 am in

U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley has extended his lead over the Republican field in an open-seat U.S. Senate race.Braley has a double-digit lead -- 12 to 15 percentage points – over most of the largely unknown GOP hopefuls for the seat of Sen. Tom Harkin, who is retiring after five terms, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released this morning.

Although his margins have improved, Braley has yet to break 50 percent in the Quinnipiac poll. He leads his nearest possible competitor, former energy company CEO Mark Jacobs, 40 to 31 percent in the poll of 1,411 registered voters from March 5-10.

That’s an improvement for Braley from a Quinnipiac poll in December that showed the four-term Democrat’s lead over former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker to be just 3 percentage points – 43 to 40 -- or barely more than the poll’s margin of error.

At the time, Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, attributed Braley’s showing to President Barack Obama’s unpopularity.

Obama is still unpopular among Iowans, according to Quinnipiac. The president gets a negative 39 to 57 percent approval rating from Iowans, roughly the same as his 38 to 59 percent disapproval in December.

In a Quinnipiac poll last summer, 29 percent said their vote in the U.S. Senate race would be a vote against Obama, while 14 percent say it is a vote for Obama.

In the most recent poll, Braley gets a 35 to 18 percent favorability rating, while 46 percent of Iowa voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

“The curse of President Obama’s low approval does not seem to be hurting U.S. Rep. Braley,” Brown said.

Or it might be that 77 to 85 percent of voters don’t know enough about the GOP candidates to form an opinion.

So nearly eight months out from the general election, Braley holds a nine-point lead over Jacobs, who has advertised on radio and TV more heavily than his GOP rivals, and leads Whitaker 42 to 30 percent, state Sen. Joni Ernst 42 to 29 percent and college professor Sam Clovis 42 to 27 percent.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage point, was conducted by live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

Quinnipiac also found that Iowa voters approve of the job U.S. Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is doing by a 62 to 27 percent margin and approve Harkin’s performance 55 to 31 percent.

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