Iowa GOP leader doesn't think King, Reynolds, Northey will run for Senate

Forget the obvious choices.

The Iowa Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 won't be Rep. Steve King, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds or state Secretary of Ag Bill Northey, according to a top Iowa GOP operative.

Doug Gross, a former top aide to Gov. Terry Branstad, party leader and candidate for governor in 2002, doubts any of those three top GOP officials will seek the nomination for the seat held by Sen. Tom Harkin. The Cumming Democrat has announced he won't seek re-election in 2014.

Democrats appear to be settled on 1st District Rep. Bruce Braley, a Waterloo attorney serving his fourth term.

Although King said on Iowa Public Television's Iowa Press last week that the odds were “better than 50-50” he would run, Gross used the same venue to throw cold water on the likelihood of a King-Braley match-up.

“I know he was here last week indicating that he is analyzing it,” Gross said on the public affairs show that airs at 7:30 p.m. Friday and noon Sunday on IPTV as well as 8:30 a.m. Saturday on IPTV World. “Usually when I've worked with politicians over the years, when they're analyzing something they're usually trying to figure out how not to do it, because usually their gut tells them when they're going to do it.”

King has fueled speculation about a Senate run with recent speaking engagements outside his districts, such as stops in Jones and Scott counties in Eastern Iowa last weekend.

However, Gross' breakdown is consistent with Iowa State University political science Professor Steffen Schmidt's analysis that the longer it takes King to make up his mind about the race the likelihood of him running decreases.

Gross also downplayed the idea that Reynolds or Northey will jump into the fray.

“I'm also skeptical as to whether or not the secretary of Agriculture, Bill Northey, or the lieutenant governor will run for that spot,” he continued.

Reynolds, a former county treasurer and state senator, is seen as being groomed by Branstad to be his successor.

Northey, who is in his second term, also is seen as a possible future gubernatorial candidate. He hasn't ruled out that option or seeking other statewide office.

Even though he rules out the obvious choices for the Senate race, Gross isn't worried about the GOP fielding a viable candidate.

“Oh don't worry, they tend to self-select,” he said, adding that he won't be a candidate.

Given that it's the first time in a long time that Iowa has had an open-seat U.S. Senate race, Gross believes the contest will be “hotly competitive, very competitive in an off year where Republicans have a good chance of winning.”

“I think we'll have a good candidate, I just can't tell you who it's going to be,” Gross said.

He expressed more concern about the party's readiness for 2014. The state party, Gross said, “is largely being controlled by a very small minority of the party.” He was referring to supporters of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul in 2012 who have taken most of the leadership roles in the party.

“That is not how you win elections,” Gross said. “So we've got a substantial amount of work to do between now and 2014.”