First and foremost, the statistic that matters most is this in college football: Wins and losses. Everything else is for giggles and snorts.
Iowa is 2-0 in the Big Ten. That’s as good as it gets for two games.
Which makes the following statistics more like peccadilloes instead of cardinal sins, but they’re still pretty surprising after a half-season with a senior quarterback in James Vandenberg:
In passing efficiency, the Hawkeyes are 114th of the 120 FBS teams that aren’t reclassifying/provisional. There are four reclassifying/provisional teams, but that’s not our concern.
Iowa is tied with Army at 118th in passing touchdowns with two. Army has thrown 61 passes, Iowa 195. New Mexico is last with one. It has thrown 84 passes. New Mexico, like Iowa, has a winning record.
Iowa is last in FBS in the percent of its touchdown passes that are touchdowns at 1.03.
Iowa is 115th in yards per pass attempt, at 5.82.
Last season, Iowa was 46th in passing efficiency. It completed 6.1 percent of its passes for touchdowns, and averaged 7.41 yards per pass attempt.
Yet, the Hawkeyes have more passing yards per game (189.0) than four Big Ten teams including Ohio State, Michigan and Northwestern.
And for glass-half-fullers, Iowa is tied for 22nd in fewest interceptions thrown, with a mere three. Michigan’s Denard Robinson has eight.
Iowa has allowed just one quarterback sack in its last five games.
And, oh yeah, the Hawkeyes are 19th nationally in total defense. There’s your 4-2 and 2-0.
What that boils down to Mike…is one very simple fact–there is still a severe lack of a proven commodity at WR for Iowa.
Last year, Vandenberg had Marvin McNutt. Vandenberg had the confidence that if he threw a bad ball, McNutt would still be able to use his freakish physical skills and go get it. (Case in point–remember the bad ball that McNutt bobbled and hauled in for a long TD at Purdue?) I don’t think you can say that JVB has that confidence in any of Iowa’s WR’s to do that this year.
If you look at Vandy’s stats this year–other than the TD numbers..they’re remarkably similar to last year’s stats. He currently has a 57.4% completion percentage–last year, it was 58.7.
He’s thrown for over 1100 yards so far this season. Last year after 6 games, he had over 1400 yards passing.. Whether or not he can get to the 3000 number like he did last year remains to be seen.
After 6 games last year, he had 4 INT’s, this year 3.
One very positive thing on JVB’s stats–are the number of sacks taken. He’s only been sacked 7 times this year. Last year he was sacked 29 times.
Now that being said, can Vandy do better? Absolutely.
However, let’s keep in mind that when you lose the program’s all time best WR who owns the Hawkeye records for career TD receptions and single season TD receptions–you’re going to have a significant drop off in production.
It seems to me that the passing stats would dramatically improve if they got the ball play-action to the tight-ends, namely the tight ends — the Polish Hat? With his size speed and potential, he has been nothing but a huge disappointment. JVB should be able to loft the ball over the line or a screen and let him run. I suspect he isn’t as tough as we’d like to think and that is propensity to drop after being hit and that is suspect to me. Without speed on the outside what else can you expect a QB who can only make 1 primary read to do? If he can distinguish himself soon, I’d give Hamilton a shot. Bueller? Anyone? Thank God the defense comes to play on Saturdays. We’d be in a world of hurt.
Nice job of polishing a road apple.
How can Vandy do any better if “there is still a severe lack of a proven commodity at WR for Iowa.” Who will Vandy get better with?
How about this: the worst passing team in major college football resides in Iowa City. As Woody Hayes said, three things can happen with a pass, and two are bad. Unless Greg Davis has designed the play. 5.8 yards per attempt is a function of play calling and execution. Completing a designed 2 yard pass is a major part of the problem. Every receiver is not a future pro-bowler, no matter what a “recruiting expert” says.
Be happy your team resides in the B1G. That is where legends and leaders are made.
The points Todd makes have some merit. On the other hand, there is so much more going on in terms of Iowa’s QB play than can be attributed to the loss of an outstanding receiver.
Iowa’s QB play has been weak. A few plays have been made, true, and percentages are what they are. But when most of Iowa’s passes are thrown further across the field than down it, when Iowa needs 7 yards for a first down and it throws a 3-yard completion, there are problems.
One: If Iowa’s receivers do lack speed, then throw the long ball short and use the opponents’ superior speed against them. Intentionally under-throwing the long ball places the defender in a weak position and allows the receiver to use his body to come back to the ball much like rebounding in basketball.
Two: In the running game, a quick defense should be attacked with quick-hitters right at them to negate their speed, and with misdirection, again to use their speed against them.
Three: Run the quick-hitters from a spread formation. You break the line of scrimmage and nobody’s home. Long gains result.
Four: Throw the ball up HIGH to 6-7 and 6-4 TE’s and see what 6-0 LBs and DBs can do about it.
FIVE: The best QB play Iowa has had since JVB took over that role was the 4th quarter against Pitt last year. The no-huddle yielded the greatest comeback win in Iowa history. It lit a fire under a dead Iowa offense. It had the QB throwing on target and it had the receivers begging for more of the same after the game. And so Iowa hasn’t really tried to do this since. Call me crazy, but you might wonder why. I love the running game and “traditional” Iowa football, but I love winning even more.
Finally, none of this is new. These are fundamental football strategies that are known to everyone. So the question is, why doesn’t Iowa’s brilliant new offensive coordinator and highly compensated head coach apply these strategies? Doing so would be “scratching where it itches.” Doing so would, it seems, give Iowa a legitimate shot at winning a division and even a Big Ten championship in this conference-wide rebuilding year.
Winning at MSU with one hand tied behind its back was amazing. Keeping it going is possible, but does Iowa’s offensive coaching have the imagination to give its players the best chance of executing? History says no, and that’s the shame. But history need not be repeated, and that’s the hope.
One article I read was blaming the coaching of Davis, now it’s his wide receivers. Bullets of blame are landing all over the place but only glancing off of Vandenberg apparently. Now Weisman is out and we’re relying in a freshman running back or one coming off serious injury. Vandenberg threw one great pass all game at michigan state. It saved the game and with Ferenz probable his starting job. But let’s be honest, like the Big Ten announcers who remarked that Vanderberg just doesn’t have it this year. He had open receivers all day long, time in the pocket (one sack allowed), and good play calling. Davis can’t throw the passes for him, receivers can’t catch balls 3 feet over their heads, and nobody apparently can fix his footwork. His “great” stats last year came off of about two game, the rest he was average at best. Some players peak and never get better, maybe seeing an underclassman get a start will light a fire under his feet and push him to reach his potential. If his fragile confidence can’t take that than maybe he’s not the man for the job.
Mr. Johnson;
I had not looked at it from that point of view, but thank you for this information. It makes sense to me.
Todd, with all due respect: Bushwah! This ain’t about Marvin McNutt, it is about zero speed among our WR’s and the complete lack of confidence that Vandenberg shows in his arm. He looks like that timorous rookie who came in during the Northwestern game in 2009. The only really wide open receiver I have seen all year was Jordan Cotton on the flea-flicker, and he had to come to a complete stop just to catch the ball! It was that badly underthrown. If he had not had 30 yards on the nearest defensive back, he never would have scored. And he may be the fastest of all our receivers who are getting any touches at all. Face it, I saw Iowa State LINEBACKERS covering our wideouts! That is just pathetic.
This team needs to recruit some speed. And it has to show some faith in the speed and hands that it has. The defense will keep us in it most of the time, the way they did against ISU before we turned it over. They cannot shut out everyone every week. That is far too much to ask of a defense. It is time for Vandenberg to act like a fifth year senior. Marvin McNutt has nothing to do with that.
We’re tied for first in the Big Ten (and 14th nationally) in turnover margin. I think that is another number that is highly predictive of success with low-margin-for-error offenses, and Vandenberg deserves some of the credit for that, as he does the low sack count.
I always look at YPA in the box, and ours Saturday was 3.7, which is somewhat staggering. For us to achieve legitimate balance and some red zone happiness, that has to double.
All in all, unless Weisman has a broken fibula, and I don’t know how he doesn’t have a broken fibula from that helmet hit, I predict that we’ll just try to get a Trent Dilfer/Ravens 2000 season from James, and try to win some more close ones.
I can’t stand reading all this about how bad the receivers are. They may not be the best but they aren’t the problem. A QB that can’t throw the ball to them with any consistancy is the issue. Vandenchristensenberg is terrible. How many times do I have to watch him throw a 5 yard pass when it’s 3rd and 10?
He’s an average QB having a below average year. Bench him.
Everyone’s talking about lack of speed at the receiver spot. Someone respond, who were the burners on Chuck Long’s teams of the 80′s. I believe they had one true track star but he was not a great receiver. Dave Martz (not sure on spelling) not a burner but one hell of a receiver. Other receivers that stood out Hinkle, Hill, Chambers, Saunders, McNutt, dare I say DJK, and many others never had great speed. Outside of Dwight, almost no Iowa receiver ran better than a 4.5 . It’s about route running and connecting with your QB. I’ve seen none of that this year.