Fran McCaffery has told us Iowa will schedule better nonconference teams when his program is ready for the opposition.
That season apparently isn’t the coming one.
Here is the Hawkeyes’ non-Big Ten schedule for the season ahead:
Fri., Nov. 9 UT-Pan American IOWA CITY
Mon., Nov. 12 Central Michigan IOWA CITY
Thurs., Nov. 15 Howard IOWA CITY
Sat., Nov. 17 Gardner-Webb IOWA CITY
Tues., Nov. 20 vs. Western Kentucky Cancun, Mexico
Wed., Nov. 21 vs. DePaul/Wichita State Cancun, Mexico
Tues., Nov. 27 at Virginia Tech Blacksburg, Va.
Sat., Dec. 1 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi IOWA CITY
Wed., Dec. 4 South Dakota IOWA CITY
Fri., Dec. 7 Iowa State IOWA CITY
Sat., Dec. 15 vs. Northern Iowa Des Moines, Iowa
Wed., Dec. 19 South Carolina State IOWA CITY
Sat., Dec. 22 Coppin State IOWA CITY
That, folks, is a who’s-who of who’s-not-who in college basketball with a few good teams mixed in, like Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and probably Wichita State.
Here are the 2011-12 records of these teams:
UT-Pan American 11-21 overall, 5-5 in the Great West Conference
Central Michigan 11-21, 5-11 in the Mid-American
Howard 10-21, 6-10 in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Gardner-Webb 12-20, 6-12 in the Big South
Western Kentucky 16-19, 7-9 in the Sun Belt (The Hilltoppers did win their league tourney and go to the NCAAs, albeit with a losing record)
Wichita State 27-6, 16-2 in the Missouri Valley
DePaul 12-19, 3-15 in the Big East
Virginia Tech 16-17, 4-12 in the ACC
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 6-24, 4-12 in the Southland
South Dakota 10-18, 5-13 in the Summit League
Iowa State 23-11, 12-6 in the Big 12
Northern Iowa 20-14, 9-9 in the Missouri Valley
South Carolina State 5-26, 0-16 in the MEAC
Coppin State 14-16, 9-7 in the MEAC
I don’t know where to start. Three teams from the MEAC, the 30th-strongest conference of 32 according to the end-of-season Sagarin Ratings? And none of those three teams finished as high as fifth in the MEAC?
There’s only one team from the 31st-ranked conference, the Great West.
The bright side? No team from the No. 32 league, the Southwestern Athletic Conference is coming to Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season. Somehow.
If Iowa plays Wichita State instead of DePaul in Cancun, the total 2011-12 record of the Hawkeyes’ nonconference foes will be 181-234 and their cumulative conference mark will be 88-124. If it’s DePaul, those numbers drop to 166-247 and 75-137.
Three teams from the MEAC? Texas-Pan American and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi?
Iowa’s going to have a winning record for a second-straight season, or else the seas have melted and the rocks have burned.
Of the nine nonconference matchups in Carver-Hawkeye, that Iowa State-Iowa game should be good. The other eight? Bring on the Big Ten season.
There were 345 Division I men’s teams last season. Here are the final 2011-2012 Sagarin rankings for Iowa’s upcoming foes (or possible foes in the cases of Wichita State and DePaul):
15. Wichita State
27. Iowa State
75. Northern Iowa
78. Virginia Tech
155. DePaul
192. Western Kentucky
255. Central Michigan
266. Gardner-Webb
271. Coppin State
286. South Dakota
306. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
310. Howard
311. Texas-Pan American
326. South Carolina State
This schedule seems about right for this team. A bunch of sure feel good wins and a few tough eggs mixed in. With a team young at PG and Center these will help ease the freshman into D1. I’m not worried that the upper classman won’t be ready for the big games. They have been battle tested and will show up. I would like to see a huge upgrade in scheduling in ’14 and beyond.
That is a contender for the worst major D-1 non-con schedule for sure. Second consecutive .500 season is guaranteed. Get your season tickets now!
Put the blinders on and have a swig of kool-aid. I can’t wait to hear the hype. It is probably an appropriate schedule for the 88th ranked Sagarin team. Total yawn induction.
This is a logical continuation of the Fran policy to recruit big, play easy teams, and above all… image. I give him credit for his recruiting ability, I will believe his strengthening of the schedule when I see it. For a guy who is scared to take a trip to Cedar Falls, I would say this kind of non-conference schedule is probably the new normal for the Hawkeyes.
Zach and Jay:
Your tones indicate that you’re talking about a Ferentz loss (say Wisconsin 31-30) rather than a man that’s attempting to dig a once-proud program out of dark hole filled with apathy and mostly a losing culture. I’m giving him four seasons to become a “regular” on the postseason list – and that should be NCAA, not NIT. In regards to strength of schedule, the B1G will help as long as it remains one of the top 2 conferences and Iowa does well. If not, then they will need an outstanding OOC record AND Top 4-5 B1G record. (“Afraid” to go to CF? Really? Even as an UNI grad, I find that funny – yes it’s a state school, but it’s a lose-lose proposition for Iowa = beating an above-average to strong mid-major is always expected, and even close victories can be judged harshly by the voting public.)
Personally, this is as excited as I’ve been about Iowa basketball since 1999. I believe that we need to be careful and not skip rebuilding steps just because “on paper” we are stronger than 3 years ago. Judging by your strong reactions, it appears that you both have invested some passion into Fran too. Let’s give it time and see what happens – if they can’t go above .500 in conference it’s not going to matter anyway what their OOC schedule was come March.
I think it is well understood that non-conference schedules in college basketball are to serve one purpose above all–to prepare the team for conference play. How one goes about that differs from team to team. A team like this year’s Indiana needs a tough non-con schedule because they have a ton of talent and thus are looking at winning the conference and being a serious national championship contender. Iowa is not looking at those goals. Iowa is trying to position itself as a winning program again. At the end of the year the main thing people talk about it wins and losses. If Iowa plays a monster non-con schedule and performs admirably but goes .500 and then goes .500 in the Big Ten, they’re going nowhere in the post-season. But, if they go undefeated or nearly so with a soft non-con and then go .500 in the Big Ten they have an outside chance at the Big Dance and will be a lock for the NIT. That would be the logical next step for Iowa.
So I consider this brilliant strategy by Fran. I also expect next year he will sprinkle in some more difficulty. But he’s three years away from the old days of scheduling. And rightly so. This was a basketball program on life support after Lickliter, who has proved he was a monumental program killer by essentially being unemployable.
Pete, be advised that with comments like yours you most assured will NOT be on the Lickliters’ Christmas card list.
So we didn’t schedule Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky and Kansas in the pre-season. Big deal. There are still teams in there that can give us a push in UNI, ISU and Virginia Tech. Coppin State was down last year, but they have been a regular participant in March Madness in the past, and will again.
This crew needs to have its confidence built up, not treated the way our Olympic basketball team has treated its opposition in London (which is essentially how a baby treats a diaper) and getting destroyed physiclly and mentally by November 1. There will be plenty of tough games in the B1G, and 20 or 22 wins overall will get us in the NCAA for the first time in God knows how long. That can only happen if these guys beleive they can win at home and on the road. Getting serially crushed in the pre-season will not accomplish that. In Fran We Trust. All others pay cash!
I didn’t say this in the original text, but I will now:
I certainly don’t expect a killer non-con schedule at this point in McCaffery’s program. That would be foolish. But three teams from the MEAC? That’s overstocking the tank with minnows.
I would like to have seen maybe another Missouri Valley Conference team, and someone from the Horizon League. Not necessarily great teams, but competitive programs from the Midwest rather than Texas-Pan American or Texas A&M-Corpus Christi or Howard.
This isn’t a federal case, just fodder for the dog days of summer. Most big-conference teams play schedules like this. And I have no reason to doubt Iowa’s skeds will toughen up as its team does.
Don’t really know why we are importing so many teams from the South and East. We do have the Missouri Valley and other leagues closer to home which would keep money in the midwest. I wonder is they are asking for home and home contracts with Iowa which Fran doesn’t want to commit to at this time.
I think Fran has made several very intelligent decisions regarding the program. The first is building the image of excitement. By doing nothing more than choosing an up-tempo style of play and using more superlatives in interviews than most coaches he has excited recruits into playing for him and excited the fan base into believing in the program once again. Up-tempo style is the foundation of the program, recruiting and a believing fan base are its substance. Finally, a soft schedule is his insurance policy; Fran knows that a year of progression followed by a year of regression could mean his job (this is what Iowa did to Lickliter) so if he can schedule a few wins to stack the deck in his favor, pretty savvy move.
Here’s some more numbers and commentary:
First year winning percentage:
Lickliter:40.6%
Fran: 35.5%
Second year winning percentage:
Lickliter: 48.4%
Fran: 51.4 %
Third year:
Lickliter: 31.3%
Fran: ?
What if Likliter has traded in Texas, Wichita State, and Virginia Tech for 3 MEAC teams in 09-10? What if 3 other games that season lost by 7 points or less were wins, would Lickliter have saved his job? We can’t know. But Fran surely will. He has assured himself those 3 wins before the season even starts, and even if the season was a disappointment he has a “future” of recruits he can point to. He hasn’t proved substance yet; but unlike Lickliter, he has made the right moves to give himself time.