Caucus Day Linkfest and Prediction Open Thread

Todd Dorman
Published: January 3 2012 | 10:25 am - Updated: 3 April 2014 | 9:46 am in
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Iowa is getting a bunch of attention today for some reason.

Politico compiles Iowa by the numbers. If you bet over 45 in the over/under on the number of Pizza Ranch campaigns stops, winner winner, Crispy Ranch Chicken dinner.

Some news organization called The New York Times provides us with as handy list of five things to watch.

University of Iowa Prof. Tim Hagle makes his very last caucus power rankings. Sniff.

Speaking of The Times and numbers, analyst Nate Silver says six candidates are working to win the always popular expectations game.

The defending, but not competing, Iowa GOP caucus champion, Mike Huckabee, tells Radio Iowa he has yet to warm to the current crop of wannabe’s.

Super PACS dumped $13 million on Iowa and early states, according to the Center for Public Integrity, with Mitt Romney benefiting most.

So who will win tonight?

I really hate predicting, especially this year. You never know, Jeb Bush may announce at 4 p.m. Steve King might endorse at 6:55. But based on my experience, it's generally smart to go with the candidate who is rising fastest at the end, so I'm picking Santorum to win. With Romney and Paul very close behind. I doubt anybody tops 25 percent. And any one of those three could win, depending on turnout, organization, motivation, barometric pressure and the position of Jupiter.

I still think Romney will be the nominee, someday, and I don't think a close loss in Iowa changes that. But Romney's expectations have been rising here, even as his poll numbers remained steadyish. So if he doesn't win, his campaign will sustain some dents. Oh, and there's that problem of the vast majority of caucusgoers wanting somebody, anybody else.

Make your predictions below. Don't be shy. Wrong is the new right this cycle.

Have you found an error or omission in our reporting? Is there other feedback and/or ideas you want to share with us? Tell us here.



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