 Mike HlasHi, I'm Gazette/TheGazette.com sports columnist Mike Hlas. This is the Hlog. We will meet here, discuss things, and then go [...] |
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Oklahoma-Iowa has biggest pointspread of all the bowls
I realize Iowa’s 2011 football team isn’t exactly the college version of the 2011 Green Bay Packers, but a 16-point underdog to Oklahoma? Really?
Not that OU shouldn’t be a clear favorite in the Insight Bowl. But 16 points? That’s a lot of points, folks. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but … it’s a lot of points.
In their last three games, the Sooners allowed 45 and 44 points against Baylor and Oklahoma State, respectively. I realize Iowa’s offense doesn’t rival those two, and I realize that offense managed a feeble seven points in its final regular-season game, at Nebraska. But with a month to prepare against an OU team that isn’t terribly thrilled to have fallen all the way to the Insight Bowl? It seems like a lot.
In fact, it’s the biggest number on all the bowls in Las Vegas sports books. I’m guessing it drops, maybe as soon as today. The highest spreads:
Oklahoma -16 vs. Iowa
Boise State -13.5 vs. Arizona State
TCU -12.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Texas A&M -11 vs. Northwestern
Baylor 10 vs. Washington
Eighteen of the 35 bowls have spreads of three points or less. LSU is a 1-point pick over Alabama.
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I imagine this stems from something like the Sagarin rankings which have Oklahoma at #4 and Iowa at #43. For what it’s worth, ISU is at #29. Go figure.
Iowa State’s strength-of-schedule. Even its game against an FCS team (Northern Iowa) was strong. ISU played conference games to Iowa’s 8, 6 road games instead of 5. Oh, and there was that Oklahoma State win, something no one else did vs. Cowboys.
I don’t disagree that ISU played well this year and that the Big12 was the strongest conference top to bottom (something lost on the Coaches and Harris Poll voters).
My “go figure” comment was more about Sagarin’s rankings in general and how they seem a tad off-base, especially because I don’t think anyone would consider Oklahoma to be the #4 team in the land. It’s a nice tool for oddsmakers (maybe) but I don’t think it reflects an accurate picture of who is playing the best football at any point in time. His poll is more accurate as the season goes along but I still think it places too much emphasis on SOS which is just a reflection of “apparent” difficulty. You can’t really measure any of this and just like Jeff I have tried and failed miserably to somehow quantify something which (if I would stop and think) can’t really be quantified. With that said, the Big12 did, like I mentioned, appear to be best conference this year (no offense SEC…OK…some offense to you SEC).
only 16? Iowa got a break. we are the drum. they are the mallet. say no more!
Maybe the odds makers know who our offensive coordinator is!!!
Did you ever stop to think that maybe we are the homers? It’s one thing to expect greatness from our beloved team, but to be blind to what we have done, or in this particular case, haven’t done this fall, well that’s another thing. I not only think the odds makers got this one right, but they actually took it easy on us.
The key to post season, with any team in any sport is momentum. The Hawkeyes really had none all year. OU didn’t have much either but talent alone will blow this Iowa team out of the water on any given day.
But who knows, maybe the month we have to prepare, some of the heat Ferentz is feeling (despite his “cute” little post game comments where he pretends not to care what the media or the fans are saying), the fact that this bowl game will set the tone for the 2012 season or that the Hawks seem to rise to the occasion when no one expects them to have a snowball’s chance in hell.
So we will see how this one play’s out, but fans, please don’t be surprised if OU beats us by more than 3 scores – Go Hawks