 Mike HlasHi, I'm Gazette/TheGazette.com sports columnist Mike Hlas. This is the Hlog. We will meet here, discuss things, and then go [...] |
|
Email the author
Iowa: 9 losses as double-digit favorite since ’06
Not Hawkeyes' "favorite" stat
OK, this will surely seem like piling on Iowa. So, first of all, let me say you have to be a good, respected football program to be double-digit favorites a lot. Indiana has been favored by 10 points or more against fellow FBS teams just six times since the start of the 2006 season. Minnesota? Four. Iowa? Twenty-eight.
Secondly, in terms of wins and losses, the Hawkeyes’ record under Kirk Ferentz compares extremely favorably to almost all of the rest of the Big Ten in the last 10 years. And, it was just 22 months ago when Iowa won the Orange Bowl.
Underdog: Harder on Iowa than most
I’ve written a boatload of columns and blog posts in that time citing statistics that reflected favorably on Iowa and its coach. All that pandering to Hawkeyeland aside …
Iowa’s loss to 16-point underdog Minnesota last Saturday got me wondering how many times Iowa has lost as a double-digit favorite. Luckily, materials to find such arcane statistics are easily found. Phil Steele’s 2011College Football Preview has all the point spreads as far back as 2006, and this site goes all the way back to 1993.
From 1999 to 2005, Ferentz’s first seven seasons as Iowa’s coach, the Hawkeyes were 18-0 straight-up when they were favored by 10 or more points. Since 2006, they are 19-9. That isn’t especially good. It looks even worse when you compare it to the same records of the other Big Ten programs as double-digit favorites since 2006:
Wisconsin 31-0 1.000 pct.
Penn State 29-0 1.000
Indiana 6-0 1.000
Ohio State 42-2 .955
Michigan 21-1 .955
Nebraska 29-3 .906
Northwestern 8-1 .889
Michigan State 16-2 .889
Purdue 14-2 .875
Illinois 12-2 .857
Iowa 19-9 .679
Minnesota 2-2 .500
Iowa’s losses as double-digit favorites since 2006 were these:
2006: Indiana (19-pt. favorite, lost 31-28), Northwestern (20-pt. favorite, lost 21-7)
2007: Iowa State (17-pt. favorite, lost 15-13), Indiana (10-pt. favorite, lost 38-20), Western Michigan (14-pt. favorite, lost 28-19)
2009: Northwestern (15-pt. favorite, lost 17-10)
2010: Northwestern (10-pt. favorite, lost 21-17), Minnesota (15-pt. favorite, lost 27-24)
2011: Minnesota (16-pt. favorite, lost 22-21)
-u20042.png?1366232523)
Race for Iowa U.S. Senate seat in 2014 wide open, poll indicates
Iowa Legislature ends rancorous 2013 session on high notes
Three people shot in SE Cedar Rapids
Blood found likely that of missing teen, abductor called “pure sociopath”
Cedar River in Cedar Falls hits flood stage
Another term for Branstad? Iowans split in new poll
Soooooooo…. pretty much Northwestern, Indiana, and Minnesota.
Also of note:
In that same stretch, Iowa has been a double-digit underdog just once (on the road vs. a Michigan team that finished 11-2) in 2006.
Hmmmm. Is it because we didn’t “execute”?
Pollyanna speaks: 2 losses to Indiana followed by a win; 2 losses to Northwestern followed by a win; 2 losses to Minnesota followed by (tune in next season).
Sue, you’re right. Hawk “execution” wasn’t Saturday. I HATE watching an Iowa defense give up…
In regards to the execution of Iowa’s football team, I’m in favor of it.
Mike and fellow Hawkeye fans,
If you want to read a very fair, unbiased assesment of what we are getting for our $3.8M per year, read Lee Barfknecht’s article in the Monday Omaha World Herald. The title of the article is “Shouldn’t Iowa get more from Ferentz?” Lee throws no low blows and simply points to the facts. He has Iowa rated 11th in the Big Ten, and that seems pretty fair after last week. It is tough to get exposed for what you are, and I think that is what is happening to Iowa over the last few years. Our schemes are well established, but we no longer seem to have the players or the coaches required to make them work.
I don’t know what you people expect. Iowa is just a little ol’ state with hardly any players ever to pick from. They have to fight meanie ISU on the recruiting trail AND on the field. Iowa City is the only cold, small city campus in the whole wide Big 10, and all the poor farmer folks here can barely afford to have lights for night games and electric scoreboards for cryin’ out loud. You people should just be happy just being nominated (er, I mean, just playing teams competitively) and enjoy your 7-8 wins per year and losses to the lowly with the occasional upset of a big boy. Jeesh! Stop pretending that you could ever get anyone ever again that could get you those 7 wins either!
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry or throw myself in front of some traffic.
Paul: I’d go with the laughing option.
“If you want to read a very fair, unbiased assesment of what we are getting for our $3.8M per year”
Already covered by Sports Illustrated earlier this year. Yawnnnnnnn
I’ve read both articles; some of it is obviously the same, but not all of it. It’s a good read IMO.
Hi Mike, If you want some other mind blowing stats I can email you some I put together regarding a comparison I did between Hayden and Kirk and their records in close games. It is illuminating.
Furthermore, it can be said Iowa is HORRIBLE at covering a large spread. Fortunately, I bet against Iowa covering anytime the spread is 10 points or more, and have so for the past 3 years. Needless to say, I have come out on the winning end A LOT! I am an Iowa fan, but also a realist….what we have is a mediocre team at best. They get lucky and keep close against the big teams…sometimes winning. The rest of the year is very challenging, however I could see them win a game or two and out of the last 4, I think at least 3 will be close. (10 points or less)
.679 % of the time, it works all the time…