Unlike rest of nation, redistricting in Iowa may not mean a GOP boost

A national population shift to the South and West is expected to boost Republican strength nationwide, but it may have the opposite effect in Iowa.

As expected, Iowa will lose a congressional seat next year despite topping 3 million in population, according to the first data from the 2010 Census that was released Tuesday.

“We'll have to see what happens, but clearly in Iowa it's going to be very interesting,” Steffen Schmidt, Iowa State University professor of political science, said of the redistricting plan that will be drawn next year.

Republican Reps. Tom Latham of Clarion and Steve King of Kiron represent the 4th and 5th Districts, which include the western, less populous counties in the state.

Democratic Reps. Bruce Braley of Waterloo, Dave Loebsack of Mount Vernon and Leonard Boswell of Des Moines represent the 1st, 2nd and 3rd districts in the central and eastern parts of the state that include the state's larger cities - Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Dubuque and Davenport.

Just how Iowa's congressional districts will be redrawn will be determined by more detailed information showing population shifts within states. That data will be available in February and March, according to U.S. Census Director Robert Groves.

“If the two Republicans end up in one giant district in western Iowa, it could reduce the number of Republicans in Congress,” said Schmidt, the ISU professor.

Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa political science professor, said the redistricting might provide a retirement opportunity for Boswell, 76.

“At least two of (members of Congress) will be potentially up against each other, possibly more. It's kind of that good opportunity to say it's a good time to pack it in, but we'll have to see what the Legislative Services folks say,” Hagle said, referring to the non-partisan state Legislative Services Agency, which draws the new districts.

Iowa law requires the districts not be drawn to favor any political party, incumbent legislators or member of Congress or to dilute or strengthen the voting strength of a language or racial minority.

Republican Reps. Jim Leach of Davenport and Jim Nussle of Manchester were thrown into a newly reconfigured 1st District after the 2000 census. Leach moved to Iowa City and was elected in the new 2nd District. Boswell moved from the new 2nd District to the new 3rd. All were re-elected.

Iowa's congressional delegation has declined since the 1920s, when the state had 11 seats.

Each of Congress's 435 members will represent 710,767 people, Groves said, up from 646,952 between 2000 and 2010. Each congressman represented about 34,000 when the first census was conducted in 1790.

“There has been discussion about whether at some point there needs to be something done, maybe expand the seats in the House, but that's a tough one to do,” Schmidt said. “You're messing with the Constitution.”