With 9 months to GOP straw poll, candidates will soon invade Iowa

So long, 2010. Welcome to the 2012 presidential caucus cycle.

Republican victories in Tuesday's midterm elections have emboldened the party, and it likely won't be long before the slate of potential challengers to President Barack Obama start showing up on Iowa doorsteps.

For the past several months, a bushel of potential candidates have dutifully plied the state, site of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, helping Iowa candidates.

At least publicly, they've kept their own ambitions under wrap. Don't expect it to last.

The caucuses are little more than a year away. And with the state Republican Party's straw poll just nine months down the road, that leaves little time for organizing an apparatus capable of identifying and mobilizing the 100,000 to 125,000 Iowans who tend to go to the caucuses.

“We will definitely see some campaigns with boots on the ground in January,” said Steve Grubbs, the Davenport political consultant and former chairman of the state GOP.

Ideally, he said, it takes a year to organize the state.

“You don't want to be any later than May,” he said.

The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012. Thus far, the field is undetermined.

Potential candidates

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, are said to be taking steps.

Others, such as former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have residual networks left over from their 2008 presidential campaigns, so they don't have to move as quickly.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may yet run, while a host of others, including Haley Barbour, Mike Pence, John Thune, Ron Paul and others, are being talked about.

“I imagine we'll see some decisions in fairly short order,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said in an interview last Thursday.

In addition to being a wide open race, the caucus-cycle is affected by the state Republican Party's straw poll, which is typically held the August before the caucuses.

In 1999, the fundraiser turned out more than 23,000 Iowans for a carnival-like atmosphere that nonetheless was a key tuneup for the main event five months later.

George W. Bush won both.

Time is factor

If the straw poll takes on a similar role in the 2012 cycle, that would narrow the window for those interested in winning Iowa, especially lesser-known candidates.

Bush did announce his candidacy only a couple months before the straw poll. But with so much anticipation over his entry into the race, the Texas governor's aura of inevitability got here much earlier than he did.

Of course, it's not clear yet what the straw poll will mean this time.

Three years ago, much of the event's importance was diluted when John McCain and Rudy Giuliani said they wouldn't take part.

“I'm not sure anyone can predict what kind of importance it will have,” said Dave Kochel, a Des Moines consultant who has been with Romney.

Even if it's diminished, that still doesn't leave much time.

Actually, the greater uncertainty now is which of the candidates will even go through Iowa.

McCain, the party's 2008 nominee, didn't campaign here much three years ago, yet he won the party nomination. And just a couple of months ago, he was downplaying the state's importance, suggesting a greater emphasis on New Hampshire, the first primary state.

Strawn said he tells candidates it's always a good idea to engage Iowans face to face.

As for skipping the state and still winning the nomination, he said, “I think it would be incredibly difficult.”

He, too, noted the wide open field.

First poll

It didn't take long for the first post-midterm poll to pop.

CNN asked Iowa Republicans leaving their polling places last Tuesday who their likely 2012 favorites were.

Romney and Huckabee tied at 21 percent, followed by Palin at 18 percent and Gingrich at 7 percent.

Still, a fifth said they would support another potential candidate, CNN said.

It's worth noting the midterm electorate tends to differ from the universe of caucus-goers.

Also, it's early and like their Democratic counterparts, Iowa Republicans in the state tend to settle on a candidate late in the process.