 Marc MorehouseHi, I'm Marc Morehouse. I've covered sports for more than 15 years, mostly in Eastern Iowa. I've had Hayden Fry [...] |
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Final Four
Iowa's Tyler Sash (9, right) laterals the ball to Micah Hyde (18) over Michigan State's B.J. Cunningham (3) after an interception in the first quarter of their game on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2010, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. Hyde took the ball for a touchdown. (Liz Martin/SourceMedia Group News)
IOWA CITY — And then there were four. Or, really more accurately, it should be and now there are four.
The Hawkeyes (6-2, 3-1 Big Ten) won their way back into the Big Ten title race with their 37-6 victory over Michigan State (8-1, 4-1) on Saturday.
And so now with four weeks left in the season, the Big Ten is down to a final four. You have No. 15 Iowa, No. 16 Michigan State, No. 7 Wisconsin and No. 8 Ohio State.
These four teams have one conference loss entering November. It’s not going to be a playoff, but there already have been a few playoff-type games. Michigan State holds the head-to-head over Wisconsin with a 34-24 victory. Wisconsin holds the head-to-head on Ohio State and Iowa with wins over those two in back-to-back weeks.
Wisconsin and Michigan State have schedules on their sides. The last playoff game will be Nov. 20 at Kinnick Stadium, when Ohio State travels to Iowa City.
Michigan State and Ohio State likely benefit from a three-team tiebreaker. MSU has the head-to-head victory over Wisconsin, thus nullifying the Badgers’ impressive run. Ohio State will likely be the highest rated BCS, which would win a three-way tie with MSU and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin wants this to come down to head-to-head. It would go to the Rose Bowl if it came down to a tie with Ohio State and Iowa. Iowa’s best chance is head-to-head with Michigan State and, potentially, Ohio State.
“It’s all zero-zero right now,” said Iowa cornerback Micah Hyde, who took the lateral from safety Tyler Sash and returned it 66 yards for the play of the day in Iowa’s victory over MSU. “Indiana is a scary team to us. They’re the next team. It’s all zero-zero.”
Here’s a look at the four teams in the “and now there are four.”
Iowa
Schedule: Nov. 6 at Indiana; Nov. 13 at Northwestern; Nov. 20 vs. Ohio State and Nov. 27 at Minnesota
BCS ranking: 16th (current BCS ranking)
Fatal flaw: Iowa’s non-conference loss at Arizona kills the Hawkeyes in overall record, which is the No. 1 tiebreaker for teams that haven’t faced each other. This ultimately won’t matter for the Hawkeyes, because they will have played the other three contenders, so head-to-head is the factor for Iowa. Right now, that gives the Badgers the edge.
Comes down to this, Iowa needs to take care of business, rise up against Ohio State and hope for a Wisconsin defeat.
Trump card: Iowa earned head-to-head supremacy over Michigan State last Saturday. It controls its destiny against Ohio State.
Ohio State
Schedule: Nov. 6 bye; Nov. 13 vs. Penn State; Nov. 20 at Iowa; Nov. 27 vs. Michigan
BCS ranking: 11th
Fatal flaw: The Buckeyes lose head-to-head with Wisconsin. Also, the BCS rankings aren’t without risk for the Buckeyes. If the tiebreaker went down to the team with the best BCS ranking, which would happen in a three-way tie, the Buckeyes would need a lift from a win at Iowa and would have to hope the struggles of Miami, which lost to Virginia on Saturday, wouldn’t ruin their BCS chances.
Trump card: The Buckeyes would be in good position in a three-way tie because it would have won at Iowa. They’d still have to sweat the BCS rankings, but an Iowa victory would likely lift them over Wisconsin.
Michigan State
Schedule: Nov. 6 vs. Minnesota; Nov. 13 bye; Nov. 20 vs. Purdue; Nov. 27 at Penn State
BCS ranking: 14th
Fatal flaw: The Spartans are huge Ohio State fans on Nov. 20. An OSU victory in Iowa City takes out the Hawkeyes and erases the Spartans’ one head-to-head worry. MSU’s schedule is a blessing and a curse. The Spartans might be the best bet to win out, but weaker opponents are going to deflate their BCS, the three-way tiebreaker. It would also factor if it came down to MSU and OSU because they don’t play each other.
Trump card: As impressive as Wisconsin’s October was, it started Michigan State handling the Badgers at East Lansing. As far as destiny control goes, the Spartans’ remaining opponents are a collective 4-9 in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin
Schedule: Nov. 6 at Purdue; Nov. 13 vs. Indiana; Nov. 20 at Michigan; Nov. 27 vs. Northwestern
BCS ranking: 9th
Fatal flaw: As impressive as the wins over Ohio State and Iowa were, they go by the wayside if it comes down to a tie between Wisconsin and Michigan State. In a three-way tie, the Badgers would have to sweat Ohio State, which would have the ammunition to jump UW and win a three-way tie.
Trump card: Wisconsin’s November schedule can best be described as “ease of schedule.” The Badgers’ remaining four opponents sport a 5-11 record in conference. Wisconsin would be able to breathe with an MSU loss. It would welcome a tie with the Iowa-OSU winner, with the head-to-head factor.
Of course, the fatal trump card for the final four is the remaining four weeks. Anything can happen.
Link to BTN highlight (sorry, no embed).
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Mark,
Nice job w/ the blog, really enjoy reading it. Can you comment on where you think Iowa ends up if we win out this year?
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but I’m curious what your thoughts are. I’ve read a lot of stuff today mentioning that we’re very attractive to the Sugar Bowl if we can win out. Thoughts?
If Iowa wins out, it would still be in a holding pattern because of overall record.
Wisconsin and Michigan State would need to lose one. Iowa’s loss at Arizona would drag it down.
But, if Iowa won out and the other two dropped one more, it’d come down to BCS ranking and that would likely favor Iowa, with a win over Ohio State.
But you don’t want to hear about all that.
If Iowa somehow ended up with a BCS bid that wasn’t the Rose, it’d be an attractive team for any of the bowls. The Sugar, Fiesta and Orange have all visited Iowa games this season. The Sugar would likely have the first “free agent,” just judging on who might make the BCS title game.
Why wouldn’t the Sugar love Iowa?
I think the bowl RVs would be welcomed into the French Quarter.
Marc,
The Spartans fans, myself included, are not going to be Ohio St fans on Nov 20. They want Iowa and Wisconsin to win out, along with MSU winning out as well. With that three-way tie, MSU will go to the Rose Bowl by virtue of the tie-breakers set up by the Big Ten.
I think in a three-way tie, the tiebreaker is highest BCS, which would be Wisconsin, I’m pretty sure.
Either way, if MSU takes care of business, it’s going to the Rose Bowl.
False. In a three-way tie between Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin, overall record is first tie-breaker, eliminating 2-loss Iowa. MSU then owns head-to-head with Wisconsin.
In a three-way tie between OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin, overall record is a wash and then BCS standings come into play, and MSU’s strength of schedule keeps them out of the Rose Bowl.
MSU will definitely not be Ohio State fans Nov. 20.
How Michigan State finishes the season has zero impact on Iowa’s Rose Bowl chances. Iowa simply needs to win out and hope for a Wisconsin stumble. Overall record doesn’t come into play in an Iowa-MSU two-way tie, as Iowa owns the head-to-head.
Hey Marc, thanks for taking on this Rubik’s Cube brought to us by the Big Ten. The simple solution: Iowa wins out, Michigan beats Wisconsin in Ann Arbor the same day, Iowa wins at least a share of the Big Ten title and goes to the Rose Bowl. From here it seems the Michigan State writers were correct: Iowa is the best team in the Big Ten.
Can Michigan beat Wisconsin? Absolutely. After all, Michigan State scored 34 points on the Badgers. That would lead me to believe Michigan could score 40 or more on an adequate but less than daunting Wisconsin D.
But of course you’re right: ANYTHING could happen.
Iowa needs to put an early and impressive thumping on Indiana, take out some frustrations against Northwestern and then come home to a crazy crowd at Kinnick to take care of business against the Buckeyes and hope that the football gods will clear the way for the Hawkeyes to head to the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl might be nice sometime, but not this year…
I think we need to stop all the bowl talk (because it is “bull” talk) and focus on Indiana. The keys to the game with Indiana are: to come out with the angry mentality, to stop the run (I think easy to do), and guard against Indiana’s pass-oriented offense (run more aggressive schemes with nickels, dimes and the 3-4). We also need to get a pass ruch as Chappelle is under rated.
On offense, we need to gun and protect agains turnovers. It is all about Indiana. Let’s stop the bowl talk.
Marc;
How come you guys didn’t do your post game TV gig?
We did, we just never got a link to it. Just another flaw in the way we do things.
Not on the subject of bowls, but found it interesting that the coaching staff clearly tried to ‘correct’ lots of the flaws from a week ago. I noticed ‘punt safe’ on just about every MSU punt, calling T.O.’s to try and manage the clock better at the end of the 1st half, and even running a quick play after the suspect Herman catch for a 1st down (which ended up being confirmed). Also kickoff coverage was pretty good, I’d say, with a couple of nice hits.
Hey Richard,
Didn’t know you were the self-appointed “bowl talk police.” Is that a new Per-Mar post? Does it come with one of those fancy yellow jackets?
If you don’t get why fans and media want to talk bowl talk, check out Mr. Hlas’ blog.
Or you could consider what Mr. Stanzi might say: “This is America, land of free speech. Love it or leave it.”
So I’m thinkin’ — and sayin’ out loud, “Rose Bowl! Rose Bowl! Rose Bowl!”
Obviously the Ohio St. game is huge for Iowa. If they come with the intensity they did last week Iowa can win, but just seems OSU always has Iowa’s number. So I’m calling Iowa to be the first to bow out. (No one’s talking about a 4-way tie at 6-2, but it seems it could happen, however unlikely).
I really think it will come down to the last weekend. Wiscy has NW, which won’t be a gimme, even at Madison. MSU at Penn St. PSU is down, but is MSU for real? Ohio St. vs. Michigan, with Rodriquez’s job on the line. I’m thinking good games, all, but when the dust clears I think MSU loses, and OSU and Wiscy tie for the title, giving Wiscy a Rose Bowl, and OSU an at-large BCS bowl.
But I hope I’m wrong. I think Iowa winning out should give them at least a BCS bowl, even if Wiscy doesn’t lose.
As for the fans and the media, I think (as Mike and Mike say — Not the TV duo but more enlightened) they can dream big. They don’t have to play the games. What else would we have to talk about? I agree Garth that MSU loses to PSU. Just a feeling I’ve had that ol’ Joe is going to get it going on offense. The defense hasn’t been too shabby either.
As for OSU and Wisky, I think Iowa can beat OSU and Wisky will lose to Michigan. Just a gut feeling and this it what makes it fun to be a fan afterall.