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Does Big Ten expansion lead to Athletic Armageddon?
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly talks with athletic director Jack Swarbrick during the first day of spring NCAA college football practice Friday, March 26, 2010 in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Joe Raymond)
The multi-billion-dollar question engulfing college athletics pertains to potential Big Ten expansion. Should the league expand by five schools to give it 16, it’s likely other leagues will follow suit to keep up.
I’m convinced much of the Big Ten’s rhetoric — both public and behind the scenes through “sources” — is designed as a power play for Notre Dame. Because Notre Dame spurned Big Ten overtures publicly in 1999, it’s obvious Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany wants Irish brass to say “yes” before the league pops the question. It also seems obvious through comments by Notre Dame Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick the school is preparing its vocal alumni base that Notre Dame might need to say yes or face a future as a football outcast.
So what could happen in, say, 8 years if the Big Ten grabs five schools? The most realistic scenario is the league snagging Notre Dame, two schools from the west — Nebraska and Missouri — and two schools from the east — Pittsburgh and Rutgers. That would leave the Big Ten looking like this:
EAST DIVISION — Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers, Pittsburgh
WEST DIVISION– Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Missouri
If that’s the first step in a radical realignment among college athletics, the next step belongs with the Pac-10, which like the Big Ten, announced plans to consider expansion. The most likely scenario sends Utah and Colorado to that league. Of the Pac-10′s current membership, six are members of the Association of American Universities, a prestigious consortium of research institutions. Of the league’s other four members, two were ranked among the top 60 schools in the latest U.S. News and World Report rankings for best public colleges. (USC, a private university, ranks 26th overall.) Colorado ranks 34th on that list and is an AAU member. Utah is not an AAU member but ranks 63rd on that list, ahead of Oregon State, which was not ranked among the top 100.
If those two expansion scenarios play out, the Big 12 becomes the Big Eight once more with the ball squarely in Texas’ court. Texas is the kingpin for any and all expansion discussions. In 2008, Texas brought in a national-high $87.5 million from its football program and its athletics department generated $138.4 million, also the country’s most. Texas could stand pat, persuade the league to add four more schools to once again become the Big 12 and rule it the way it did the old Southwest Conference. In that scenario, expansion likely would include TCU, Houston, SMU and New Mexico.
But what if Texas and the Southeastern Conference decide to wed? What about a marriage involving the SEC’s 12 current schools plus Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State? That’s when you get college Armageddon.
The Big 12′s five holdovers — Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Baylor — could form an alliance comprised of the Mountain West and Western Athletic Conference. Or they could split on lines of south and north. Either way, it’s a dreary scenario for Iowa State.
If the Big Ten snags Pittsburgh and Rutgers, that could send the Big East into scramble mode to keep its automatic Bowl Championship Series spot. It also could make Big East football programs vulnerable to the Atlantic Coast Conference, which raided the league for Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College in 2003. It’s possible, maybe likely, that the ACC could swallow at least four Big East programs — UConn, Syracuse, West Virginia, South Florida — and possibly add Louisville and Cincinnati as well. The ACC would undoubtedly solidify its status as the nation’s best basketball league and compete regularly with the supersized Big Ten, PAC-10 and Southeastern conferences in football.
Everything lies with the Big Ten at this moment. It could decide not to expand (unlikely), snag only Notre Dame (possible) or grab up to five new schools (possible). Everything else has a trickle-down effect.
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Big Ten-ageddon! Expansion Imminent? « LawHawk SoapBox
on April 21, 2010
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I can’t imagine the SEC wanting a dreg like Oklahoma State or even Texas A&M. Neither are very good in football or bring in TV sets that Texas and Oklahoma don’t already have.
It would be better to bring in Miami and/or Florida State along with Texas and OU since they would bring us more viewer interest and better history. Or if you must bring in Big 12 schools how about Nebraska and Texas Tech? Both better football schools who would jump at getting SEC revenue.
Personally, I don’t see the reason to expand in the first place and dilute profits when we are already doing just fine.
Enjoyed the article; just one note. USC was probably not listed in the US News Top 100 public colleges because USC is not a public college. It is actually a private institution.
Bob, I could definitely see the SECOND wanting Texas A&M. They have one of the largest endowments for a public university in the country, their athletic program as a whole is one of the best, and they are among the AAU, like Texas, which could add some academic prestige to the conference. Texas and Texas A&M would be a steal for the SECOND.
Sorry. I meant SEC.
Sorry. I meant the SEC.
Sorry, but I stopped reading when you put ND in a west division. If ND is already reluctant to join because it would prevent their ‘national’ schedule, why on earth would they not at least insist on being in the east where they can maintain their rivalries with Michigan, Purdue, and MSU? They need all their remaining OOC games for USC, Navy, and rotations like Stanford, games in FL and TX, etc.
No surprise that USC wasn't on a list of top public schools. It is private.
Seven Pac 10 members are part of the AAU, with Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona State being those not in the prestigious academic organization. If the AAU matters, Syracuse would be preferable for the Big Ten than Pittsburgh because The 'Cuse is in the AAU while Pitt is not, in addition to gaining more access to new TV markets. (With Penn State, the Big Ten already has the Pittsburgh market.)
At least as good a case could be made for a 14 member conference, leaving out Nebraska and Syracuse (or Pittsburgh), adding Notre Dame, Missouri and Rutgers, given the net additions of TV markets. The revenue per school could go up with these three rather than adding Nebraska and Syracuse as well. The advantage of Notre Dame would be its "subway fans" in New York.
This Scott Dochtermann didn’t do much homework, he simply stated in this article what he would like to see happen. In reality, the Big 10 will maybe add 1-3 teams, no more.
If he were in tune to any “sources” he would know that not one Big 12 team will join the Big 10. Not Missouri, no one.
And Iowa State is not being left out to dry. Even as a Iowa ffan it was easy to see that he wanted that to happen. Seemed pretty shallow to me. Anyway, the Big 10 will be fine regardless which way it goes.
The old saying about "be careful what you wish for" comes to mind. We need a tough conference with a high profile and respect, but we don't need a superconference where we play consecutive games against, say, Ohio St., Penn St., Nebraska, Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Michigan State. The Hawks had a great year last year, but remember what '07 was like? My point: we need the Indianas and Minnesotas to get those 9 or 10 wins. And if the Texas schools join the SEC, it'll be entertaining to watch because half the coaches are going to have a VERY hot seat each year.
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