 Marc MorehouseHi, I'm Marc Morehouse. I've covered sports for more than 15 years, mostly in Eastern Iowa. I've had Hayden Fry [...] |
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The Big Analysis — Michigan
When the Hawkeyes have the ball
Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez’s most significant change on his coaching staff coming out of last season’s 3-9 was defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, formerly head coach at Syracuse. It’s Michigan’s third defensive coordinator in as many season, so, yes, continuity is a problem, but does it show up on game day?
The Wolverines are now a 3-4 defense, kind of. Freshman outside linebacker Craig Roh is listed as an OLB, but seems to play more of a standup D-end in this scheme. Robinson came in promising aggressiveness, which is saying the right thing after the Wolverines allowed the most points in school history (347) and ranked at or near the bottom of the Big Ten in turnovers forced and yards allowed last season.
So far, it’s very much a work in progress.
The Wolverines aren’t stopping the run particularly well (153.0 ypg, eighth in the Big Ten). The pass defense is a little worse, allowing 239.0 ypg (ninth in the Big Ten). But their red zone defense (inside the their 20-yard line) has been solid, allowing scores 15 of 19 times and just eight TDs. So, UM is keeping points off the board, allowing 23.4 points, fourth in the Big Ten.
There are signs of promise for UM, which is ranked No. 91 in the country in total defense. Mostly, that’s the D-line trio of Mike Martin, Brandon Graham and Ryan Van Bergen. They provided good push and stalemated Michigan’s State’s O-line in last week’s 26-20 overtime loss. The Spartans rushed for 197 yards, but averaged just 4.0 on 49 carries.
Graham has NFL first-rounder taped on the front of his helmet. He as second in the nation last season with 20 tackles for loss. He’s No. 7 on Michigan’s career sack list with 20. So far this year, he leads the Wolverines with 6.5 tackles for loss, sixth in the Big Ten. Van Bergen is ninth in the league with 2.5 sacks.
The Wolverines have has some flux in the secondary. Corner Donovan Warren has been a standout (two interceptions), but, last week, red-shirt freshman J.T. Floyd replaced Boubacar Cissoko.
The Wolverines are a lot like the Hawkeyes’ D with a zone, “keep it in front of you” mentality. Crossing routes in the zone can be had, if Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi is on. Also, tackling has been a problem with this group, including 17 misses last week. On the deciding play, the Wolverines whiffed twice on MSU RB Larry Caper.
Stanzi won the QB job last season with his accurate throws on the move. Last week, he flashed some of that in the pocket, hitting on TD passes of 33, 41 and 43. But he also lapsed into inconsistent Ricky, with the 75-yard pick six to LB Demario Davis in the fourth quarter, giving Arkansas State life.
Last week, he was fooled by a coverage and threw a pick and then tried to make something happen and ended up trying to make a TD-saving tackle. On the flip side, he threw three long TD passes, plays that coach Kirk Ferentz said hadn’t happened at Iowa in a decade.
With Michigan playing loose zones, Stanzi will have a chance to put his imprint on this game, good or bad.
Iowa’s O-line needs to be better this week and it knows it. Iowa averaged 3.76 yards a carry last week. That’s a losing number this week. They did say Arkansas State unleashed a slant scheme they weren’t prepared for, but, to a man, they said it had nothing to do with continuity (OT Bryan Bulaga played after missing three games) and had everything to do with mental error and technical mistakes.
In five games, Iowa has had five different leading receivers. That’s healthy on so many levels, depth chart and scheme. This week, TE Tony Moeaki (high-ankle sprain) is supposed to return. Iowa’s offense is married to the TE. In this game, against zone, Iowa’s two-TE sets could make a dent — if it’s available.
In his first game with all the parts working and on the field, Stanzi should put up a clean performance.
Advantage: Iowa
When the Wolverines have the ball
It was asked early this week, but it bears re-examination: How healthy is Michigan QB Tate Forcier?
Coming off a tight win against Indiana where he dinged his right shoulder, Forcier threw the ball 32 times and rushed 17 in last week’s loss to Michigan State. Several times throughout the game, his right shoulder slumped and visibly drooped on a third-and-1 dive late. At some point, coach Rich Rodriguez said Forcier took a shot in the ribs which affected him enough to be limited in practice earlier this week.
Also, during his Monday news conference, Rodriguez was asked if Forcier was gassed at the end of the game. The 6-1, 187-pound freshman missed some practice before MSU. And maybe the keyword in that sentence is “187,” which is really more of a number. Forcier, who’s thrown two winning late TD passes (Notre Dame and Indiana) and the tying one last week, has shown great toughness and grit, but he’s also a 187-pound true freshman who throws his body around the field like a Frisbee. The Big Ten is going to take a toll.
Michigan has a thunder/lightning deal going on in its backfield with Brandon Minor (6-1, 216) bringing thunder and Carlos Brown (6-0, 210) being lightning. Brown is fifth-leading rusher in the Big Ten with 67.2 yards a game. He’s scored on a 90-yard run and 61-yard pass this season.
Martavious Odoms (14 receptions), Darryl Stonum (10) and Junior Hemingway (10) are Michigan’s top receivers. They operate Rodriguez’s spread and are particularly dangerous, as is Brown, when they go to work in space.
Rodriguez’s running game depends on tempo. A lot of that was lost when center David Molk broke a foot against Eastern Michigan. Since, the bodies have been shuffling. Senior David Mossman has taken over at center, moving from right guard. Sophomore Mark Huyge has moved from right tackle to guard. Junior Perry Dorrestein has moved into tackle. Junior John Ferrara rotates into the lineup at guard.
Last week, UM rushed 28 times for 28 yards. The Wolverines struggled with MSU’s quickness. Still, UM and Forcier’s zone read average 197.8 rushing yards a game.
The quick mention of Iowa this week in Ann Arbor went to the Hawkeyes’ D-line — DEs Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns and DTs Christian Ballard and Karl Klug. They’re the rock stars of a unit that boasts the conference’s top pass efficiency defense (91.2) and also leads in take-aways (10).
Michigan hasn’t seen an Iowa, yet. The Hawkeyes saw a Michigan-lite last week in Arkansas State and QB Corey Leonard, whose arm kept and deft operation of the spread option kept taking chunks out of Iowa’s zone coverage.
Defensive coordinator Norm Parker will rely on the front four not only to pressure Forcier but also to contain him. The freshman isn’t afraid to use his feet. Neither is Denard Robinson, another freshman QB who already has three rush TDs and averages 5.3 yards a carry.
Michigan needs quick strike to work. The Wolverines are 115th in the country in time of possession (26:27), which isn’t a big deal if you’re scoring TDs. UM has been doing that, with 34.0 points a game this season.
Forcier has provided magic, every week, on the fly. When a play breakdown, Forcier has made good things happen for the Wolverines. To combat this, Iowa’s defense will have to stick to what’s been it’s golden rule in 11 seasons under Parker: If you’re going to get beat, get beat in front of you and not behind you.
The seven or eight defenders in coverage have to play coverage until Forcier crosses the line of scrimmage. Iowa does this exceedingly well.
Advantage: Iowa
Special teams
This might be the only week a team can bring a punter at Iowa who might be better than the Hawkeyes’ Ryan Donahue. Michigan’s Zoltan Mesko has the Wolverines at No. 5 in the nation in net punting (42.9). He’s tied for the Big Ten lead in punts (25) and still averages 44.0 yards a kick. Iowa still has punt coverage on the Wolverines, allowing just 0.9 yards a return (that’s insane) to Michigan’s 1.3.
Kicker goes to Michigan, but not by a lot. Senior Jason Olesnavage has hung around for five years and is finally the man, hitting 5 of 6, including 2 of 2 from 40-plus. Was last week’s badly pulled 28-yarder a blip or a trend from Iowa’s Daniel Murray? He’s 6 of 9 this year, but Ferentz was asked for the second straight week about sophomore kicker Trent Mossbrucker, who dresses every week despite the fact that he might be red-shirted this season.
UM’s Darryl Stonum against Iowa’s kick coverage is key here. On 15 returns, Stonum averages 30.1 yards with a 94-yard TD already on his resume. Iowa’s kick return unit has allowed one big return every week. Murray’s kickoffs were questioned this week. He has two touchbacks this season, compared to seven from UM’s Jason Wright.
Advantage: Michigan
The Scoreboard
Cleanliness is next to Stanzi-Ness tonight for the Hawkeyes. He’s the constant for Iowa’s offense. Everything he does, good and bad, ripples through the team. He needs a clean performance. Clean as in few risks, smart reads and good lines of communication with the receivers. That said, the Hawkeyes are going as far as this defense takes them. The defense should carry a win.
Iowa 27, Michigan 17
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Michigan will need someone other than G-Rob if they want to improve the D. I watched Robinson closely as he's dragged Syracuse through the mud. "Aggressive" is the last adjective that came to mind concerning SU's D over the past few years. I don't think Iowa will have trouble scoring Saturday. I'm more worried about Iowa stopping Forcier.
I wonder how healthy Forcier is.
I think UM will take some chances on D. They'll probably have to.
Hey Marc, I picked the Hawks 27-16. I think the fact that Michigan's "D" is 91st in the country will be the difference in the game. And of course…the atmosphere…
Michigan's D is a victim of its horrific time of possession, 115th in the country. The D-line can get push and so that gives them some hope, but otherwise, it's kind of a mess.
I'm from Michigan and would love nothing more than the Hawkeyes to STOMP UM and Forcier. Come at Forcier from the front and sides and he usually knows a big hit is coming and cringes. He's already pretty banged up. He gets hard once or twice from the big boys on D and he will be done. I can not handle another UM win!!!! The arrogance of the school and team is enough to drive you out of your mind!!!! Go Hawkeyes!!!!
Forcier needs to be knocked around early and often Saturday night. He's already dinged up and some shots on a cold Saturday night won't help his psyche.
A few nice passes to Marvin would be great as well. He, DJK and Stross should start and I can't wait to see Kennan and MM next year.
E, you're freaking me out. Who's MM? I'm sure I should know, but I can't figure it out.
Yes, early hits and as many as possible.
Uh, Marvin McNutt(MM). No need to freak out, it's all good…..
Ah ha! I was counting him this year.
It's never too soon to look ahead. Top three next year: DJK, MM, Keenan/Sandeman/Chaney, with Cotton and, maybe, N'goumou factoring. (I'm not sure what's up with Demarco Paine, either.)
Michigan had difficulty identifying some pretty fundamental stuff versus Sparty. Iowa found Tony Moeaki quite a bit the last time Robinson visited Kinnick Stadium… 8 catches, 3 TDs, over 100 something yards receiving. So between the UNI game and Robinson's memory of Syracuse visiting Iowa – there are close to 20 catches. If Moeaki plays on Saturday night – he will be a factor either getting the ball or drawing significant attention. Reisner is averaging 3 catches a game without Moeaki in the picture. The Hawkeyes in a 2 TE formation will be favorable for Iowa's play action.
Meanwhile, I don't think Iowa will go to sleep on getting after an RB like Minor. He's going to dish out some licks, too. All of their backs have a physical running style. Very Michigan that way.
I like Brown. He's very, very explosive.
Great point on TE. They really miss that legit two TE set. I thought we'd be seeing more Herman, maybe he's still a year away.
Hey Marc, I think you're exactly right that Stanzi is the difference maker on offense. He needs to play a smart, efficient, clean game. But you're also right that the defense is the straw that stirs the Hawkeyes' drink. The "D" needs to bewitch, bother, and bewilder young Forcier, and hit him from so many angles he ends up looking out his ear hole. Go Hawks, be fired up and ready this week!
Hits on Forcier should be a priority. I know, hits on any QB should be a priority, but he's hurting and 187 pounds.
That said, I kind of like Denard Robinson. Makes a lot of great things happen with his feet. I'm not sure if he's not more of a wildcat QB or what, though.
I haven't seen much mention about the weather being a factor against Michigan's offense. Anyone else out there think the night time environment, chance of snow flurries, and a freshman QB from San Diego all give the Hawks D a little more edge than usual? It's gonna be a cool night, and that ball is gonna sting…
Excellent point. I'm sure Forcier knew there'd be cold nights up in Michigan when he committed, but this is the first one and it's on hostile turf.
If you haven't seen this yet, you need to go to this website before the game on Saturday….http://www.qbforce.com/. It will make you cheer a little more every time Forcier gets smacked by Clayborn.
I've been there. I'm not sure I'd go that way if I were that family, but they're proud. It's a helluva achievement.
Michigan 49 Iowa 13. Forcier is going to pick your defense apart like he knows how to. He’s a freshman, but a stud at that. This is also the week that Michigan makes a statement on D.
Michigan 49 Iowa 13, and Michigan back in the top 25 with Rose Bowl aspirations. Defense makes a statement and shuts all you critics up. Tate is freshman, but he negates that with being a stud. Gonna be a long night over there in Hawkeye country. You had your chance to shine on national t.v. against Penn State, but now it is time for you to get embarrassed.
Yeah, this didn't really work out for you, did it?
Good game, Michigan was able to establish the run pretty well in the 3rd quarter. Good young talent on that team, same as Iowa.
My Analysis:
Dave Witvoet referee = Michigan win…I was there in 2005. I am honestly a little concerned for his safety due to the number of posts on the Hawkeye-focused websites (titles include "Witvoet Watch"). I hope the B-10 is smart about how they distribute crews this week.
First thing I'll look up in the press box Saturday.
I am trying to fret about this game because it is MICHIGAN! More like Mushigan. The offense, which has yet to see an average defense, is led by a 187 lb. QB that is breaking down not even half way through the season. The o-line is playing musical chairs now that the center is out- and don't we all know how critical the center is to good line play.
As for the defense, that rumbling beneath your feet on saturdays this fall is not the result of the Wolverine defenders imposing their will on the opponent. Rather, it is Bo Schembechler rolling over in his grave after watching 5 weeks of this powder puff defense.
There comes a time when Cinderella realizes she belongs at the ball. Likewise, there comes a time when the Hawkeyes, their fans and the critics realize this team belongs on a bigger stage. This weekend is that time. 37-7 starters vs. starters. 37-14 final.
Oh, as for next year. Michigan will be looking to replace 9 seniors, 11 if you include both kickers. Iowa, 6. Get used to it Hawkeye fans!!!
You know you don't have a program when you rush the field when you are supposed to win. Only in hawkeye country. But, seriously, please admit that you will never be better than a cinderella. Never, EVER, EVER….who wants to come to Iowa to win a national championship, I mean that is why you play right? To win national championships? You might be 6-0 but please come back to this post that I am making and confirm that I said you will be playing in the Capital One/Outback/Alamo Bowl. Trust me your offense is not very good, you took advantage of a +4 turnover margin, congratulations on the win, you beat my Wolverines and you did deserve it from the way we played. Please don't get on a high over it though, because you are not as good as advertised.
Well, I came back to your post from 2 days ago, and it seems you were a little off there. So maybe, just maybe, you'll be a little off on this one as well. Any reasonable fan realizes that Iowa has a lot of work to do. But we will enjoy this win, just as we have enjoyed the 9 prior to this one. (2nd longest winning streak in the nation) Thanks for the advice, Kyle, but I think I'll celebrate all the same.
Thanks for coming by, Kyle.
Thanks for keeping it nice and sane, Michael!
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